Criminal propaganda
On Tuesday, President Trump pledged to deploy the military in Chicago and Baltimore. In a Tuesday morning post on Truth Social, Trump called Chicago "the worst and most dangerous city in the World, by far."
Last week, Trump called Chicago a "killing field."
In reality, Chicago has a lower violent crime rate than dozens of major American cities. In 2024, according to FBI data, Chicago had 540 violent crime incidents per 100,000 people. This rate ranked Chicago 55th among American cities with a population of 250,000 or more. Major cities in red states had significantly higher rates of violent crime per 100,000 people, including Memphis (2,501), Kansas City (1,547), Tulsa (942), and Louisville (707). Trump never mentions these cities when railing against urban crime.
According to Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (D), the Texas National Guard is preparing to deploy to Chicago. (Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) denied the claim.) Five large cities in Texas had a higher violent crime rate per 100,000 people than Chicago in 2024: Houston (1,148), Corpus Christi (864), Lubbock (821), Dallas (658), and San Antonio (594).
In 2025, violent crime in Chicago has continued to plummet, particularly gun violence. Crime data expert Jeff Asher noted that the latest statistics indicate that, in 2025, "the available evidence suggests that Chicago has seen fewer shootings so far this year than any year since the mid-1960s."
Chicago is part of a nationwide trend of declining violent crime. 2024 was the safest year in America since the mid-60s. Yet, most Americans believe Trump's narrative that crime is rampant. A recent Associated Press poll found that 81% of Americans believe that crime is a "major problem" in large cities. The same poll found that 55% of Americans believe that it is "acceptable" for the U.S. military to "assist" local police.
Aggregate crime trends, however, are an example of something that no person can observe. People form their beliefs largely on what they learn from the media. News reports often reinforce Trump's misleading claims. For example, ABC News published a piece on Tuesday with this headline: "58 shot over Labor Day weekend in Chicago as governor rejects Trump threat to send National Guard."
Even one shooting is too many. But this ABC News piece does not mention until the 35th paragraph, after cataloging numerous individual shootings, that "violent crime in Chicago has dropped significantly in the first half of the year."
Moreover, the underlying assumption of the ABC News headline — and Trump's rhetoric — is that deploying the military is an effective way to reduce violent crime. The ABC News article does not scrutinize that premise at all.
Military occupation does not reduce crime
In reality, studies have shown that police militarization does not reduce crime. A 2018 study by Princeton University’s Jonathan Mummolo found that “militarized policing fails to enhance officer safety or reduce local crime.” The study, which analyzed law enforcement agencies with a SWAT team from 2000 to 2008, also found that police militarization “may diminish police reputation in the mass public.” Moreover, using data covering SWAT deployment in Maryland over a five-year period, the study found that militarized police units are more often deployed in communities that are predominantly made up of people of color.
A 2023 study from Brown University’s Robert Blair found similar results. The study, which analyzed a military intervention in Cali, Colombia, found “little to no credible evidence that military policing reduced crime or improved perceptions of safety during the intervention.”
Multiple studies have also found that surplus military equipment given to police departments by the federal government has “not reduced crime or increased officer safety.” Studies have also found that increasing police militarization leads to an increased number of civilian deaths. A 2018 study by Edward Lawson Jr. found that “as a police department’s militarization increases, so does the number of civilians killed.”
There are many alternatives to police militarization that can effectively reduce crime, including community violence intervention programs and gun violence prevention. Experts told the New York Times that Trump could instead invest in training and recruitment efforts for police departments or improve data collection. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) suggested that the Trump administration restore hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding that was cut for community violence prevention programs.
Baltimore's historic crime decline
Trump has also threatened to deploy the national guard in Baltimore. In August, Trump said that Baltimore was “so far gone” in terms of crime, and called the city a “hellhole” and a “horrible deathbed.”
Trump has also repeatedly attacked Maryland Governor Wes Moore (D). In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that “Wes Moore’s record on Crime is a very bad one” and called Baltimore “out of control” and “crime ridden.” Trump went on to threaten to “send in the ‘troops’” to “quickly clean up the Crime.”
But contrary to Trump’s claims, Baltimore is experiencing a historic decline in crime. In August, the city recorded seven homicides, which is “the lowest total for the month of August, historically one of the deadliest months of the year, on record,” according to a press release from Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott (D). As of September 1, there have been 91 homicides in Baltimore this year, which is “the fewest Baltimore has seen through the first eight months of the year in over 50 years.” Compared to the same period last year, the city has seen a “29.5% drop in homicides and a 21% decrease in nonfatal shootings.”
In April, Baltimore saw five homicides, the fewest of any month since 1970, when the city began tracking monthly homicide numbers. This is part of a continued trend. In 2024, homicides in Baltimore dropped 23% compared to 2023, and non-fatal shootings dropped 34%.
The problem is that Trump's criminal propaganda is working. His shift from immigration to urban crime is working for him as poll after poll shows that Americans think urban crime, especially in big blue cities, is a serious problem. Facts about declining crime rates are not breaking thru the bullshit, and speeches like that of Chicago's mayor, who accurately pinned Chicago's gun problem on Republicans and red states are largely ignored by the corporate media. Unless and until that changes, we run the risk of Trump so changing the narrative that his MAGA collaborators survive the midterms with their majority intact.
ABC news is nothing but a trump regime apologist. Those “journalists” are a disgrace to the profession of journalism. They are feeding the disease of maga.