Straight talk about Hormuz

Since the United States attacked Iran on February 28, 2026, Iran has closed — or severely restricted passage through — the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the global supply of oil has been constrained, raising prices for U.S. consumers and others worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route not just for oil but also for fertilizer, and its closure has contributed to a significant increase in food prices.

On at least two dozen occasions since the outset of the war, according to a comprehensive Popular Information analysis, Trump has declared that the Strait of Hormuz was “open” or controlled by the United States.

“The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran,” Trump said on Monday on Truth Social. Trump’s claim is false. So are similar declarations that Trump has made for months.

Simultaneously, Trump announced a plan to reinstate a U.S. blockade of the strait for Iranian ships and have the U.S. charge a 20% fee on all cargo. But it’s unclear how any of this accomplishes the goal of opening the strait or bringing down the cost of energy. In response to Trump’s announcement, energy prices spiked.

Maritime traffic in the strait has been severely disrupted since February. Prior to the war, an average of 125-140 vessels a day traversed the strait. On July 12, the number was 14. (Some tankers, fearful of attacks, have switched off their transponders, making tracking more difficult.)

This outcome was entirely predictable. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as a response to foreign aggression for 50 years. Four months later, the Trump administration still has not identified an effective strategy to reopen the strait. Instead, Trump simply asserts that the Strait of Hormuz is open or under U.S. control — over and over again.

Trump shifted abruptly between claiming the strait would open soon, claiming the strait was already open, and claiming the strait was closed only because he decided to close it. At no point were any of these claims accurate.

Iran has closed or severely restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz using a combination of mines, anti-ship missiles, drones, and small high-speed attack boats. The U.S. military has been unable to effectively counter these measures, despite its massive budget and superior capabilities. Iran can create enough uncertainty to dissuade transit through the strait with cheap, haphazard tactics.

The Trump administration, through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, announced it “will insure losses up to $40 billion for tankers brave enough to transit the Strait of Hormuz.” That has not been enough to entice most shippers to risk passage.

Trump now finds himself in an intractable situation. His only apparent avenue for opening the strait is to get Iran to agree to open the strait. But Iran has come to the conclusion that its control of the strait is its best leverage against the United States and other enemies. Trump’s diplomatic team of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff — with occasional cameos by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — has been unable to convince Iranian officials otherwise.

That leaves Trump with no way to open the Strait of Hormuz and no way to extricate himself from an unpopular war while the strait remains closed.

The Trump administration’s failure to anticipate Iran’s response to a U.S. attack was one of the biggest military blunders in recent history. American consumers will likely pay the price for years to come.