The attack on the legitimacy of the 2024 presidential election has begun

There are 49 days until Election Day in the United States. Although the presidential race remains extremely close, Donald Trump and his allies have escalated their efforts to undermine the results. 

In a post to Truth Social on Sunday morning, Trump falsely claimed that the United States Postal Service (USPS) "has admitted that it is a poorly run mess that is experiencing mail loss and delays at a level never seen before." Trump asked, "how can we possibly be expected to allow or trust the U.S. Postal Service to run the 2024 Presidential Election?" 

Trump has attacked mail-in voting for years, baselessly asserting that mail-in ballots facilitated fraud that robbed him of victory in 2020. Early this year, Trump appeared to change his tune on the practice. "ABSENTEE VOTING, EARLY VOTING, AND ELECTION DAY VOTING ARE ALL GOOD OPTIONS," Trump posted to Truth Social on April 19. "REPUBLICANS MUST MAKE A PLAN, REGISTER, AND VOTE!" That change of heart appears to be short-lived.

In addition to attacking mail-in voting, Trump has advanced broader claims that Democrats "want to cheat" in the 2024 election. In a September 7 Truth Social post, Trump pledged to prosecute and jail Democrats who repeat "the rampant Cheating and Skullduggery that has taken place by the Democrats in the 2020 Presidential Election." (In nearly 4 years since the 2020 election, Trump has produced no evidence of cheating.) Trump claimed that prosecuting "Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials" was the only way to ensure "this Depravity of Justice does not happen again."

Trump will not commit to accepting the results in November, saying he would only do so "if everything's honest." Otherwise, Trump said, he plans to "fight." 

The actual issues with the USPS

Although Trump's claims about the USPS are false, there are specific issues that can be addressed before election days. On September 11, the National Association of Secretaries of State and the National Association of State Election Directors wrote to Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, who was appointed by Trump, to express concerns about the ability of the USPS to "ability to deliver election mail in a timely and accurate manner." 

For example, in the letter, the groups reported that some USPS staff were not informed about USPS policies around election mail — which is supposed to be prioritized — and urged further training before Election Day. The groups are concerned about receiving ballots with timely postmarks three days or more after Election Day and election mail that is being improperly returned as undeliverable. 

The USPS pushed back on the criticism, noting that first-class mail is delivered in an average of 2.7 days and "Election Mail routinely outperforms our regular service performance due to our long-standing processes and procedures." The USPS recommended voters "should mail their completed ballot before Election Day, and at least one week prior to their state’s deadline," which it describes as a "common sense measure." 

Notably, none of the National Association of Secretaries of State, the National Association of State Election Directors, the USPS, or the USPS Inspector General expressed any concern about mail-in ballots being used to facilitate fraud. 

The billionaires backing Trump's effort to undermine the 2024 election

Trump's efforts to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 2024 election are nothing new. He did the same thing in advance of the 2020 election. The difference is that, this time, he has the public support of wealthy tech billionaires. 

Appearing on the All In podcast, billionaire investor Peter Theil asserted that if the presidential election "is going to be close," then "I'm pretty sure [Vice President] Kamala [Harris] will win because they will cheat." Theil claimed, without any evidence, that Democrats will "steal the ballots" to assure a Harris victory. 

Asked what should done, Theil said:

[The United States should] run elections the same way you do in every other Western democracy. You have one day of voting. You have practically no absentee ballots… It's one day where everything happens… That's the way you do it in every other country. 

Theil's claims about the nature of elections in other democracies are false. In Canada, for example, people can vote at an Elections Canada Office any time during the election period, which is at least 37 days. There is also a 4-day early voting period at all polling places about 10 days before the election. Further, any eligible Canadian can vote by absentee ballot — which can be returned by mail or fax — at any time during the election period. In Australia, you can vote early or by mail if you are traveling or working on Election Day. In the UK, anyone can vote by mail and need not provide a reason. You can also have someone else vote for you by proxy if you are away from home. 

Although Theil was wrong, billionaire Elon Musk promoted a video of Theil's claims to his 190 million followers on X, adding the comment "Exactly." Musk's pinned post on X is a video that marries claims of fraud by mail-in voting with a white nationalist conspiracy theory. The video, which promotes the Great Replacement Theory, falsely claims that Democrats have purposely flooded the nation with undocumented immigrants and are using them to cast illegal votes by mail.

The irony of Musk's attacks on mail-in voting

While Musk is publicly attacking mail-in voting as corrupt, he is quietly spending untold millions encouraging Trump supporters to vote by mail. Musk started America PAC, a committee devoted to promoting Trump's candidacy. The committee has ramped in recent weeks, spending $33 million since mid-August. Some of that money has been spent on Facebook ads, urging Trump supporters to vote by mail. 

Musk denied initial reports that he would donate $45 million per month to America PAC, saying he would donate "less." Musk has not revealed how much money he is spending and it will not be publicly disclosed until mid-October.