The most important crime statistics of the 2024 campaign

One of the central arguments advanced by Donald Trump and other Republican candidates in the 2024 election is that violent crime in the United States is out of control. In a speech earlier this year at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump said that under Biden, the United States is "plagued by bloodshed, chaos and violent crime." A March press release by the Republican National Committee claimed that "crime [is] spiking" as a result of Biden's policies. 

In a speech in Nevada on Sunday, Trump said that Venezuela "took all of their criminals, and they dumped them into a place called the United States of America." Trump claimed that soon, America would be more dangerous than Venezuela "unless you make me President, in which case, we'll be very safe." A press release by Trump's campaign on June 9 claimed that Biden had failed to reduce "high crime rates." 

Trump's claims are being repeated by other Republicans running for office. "Since Joe Biden took office, crime has skyrocketed across our country," Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-SC) posted on X. In a Facebook ad, Rick Becker, a Republican Congressional candidate in North Dakota, claims that "[v]iolent crime rates are through the roof."

According to a recent poll by The Economist, 63% of American voters say crime is a very important issue. (Another 28% say it is a somewhat important issue.) Criticisms by Trump and other Republicans appear to be breaking through. Only 33% of Americans approve of Biden's handling of crime, and 52% disapprove.  

But while Trump's rhetoric on crime might be effective, it is not true. 

New data released this week by the FBI reveals that both violent crime and property crime have dropped precipitously this year. The data, which is subject to revision, compares crime in the first quarter of 2024 with crime in the first quarter of 2023. It shows substantial drops in every category, including murder (-26.4%), rape (-25.7%), robbery (-17.8%), and property crime (-15.1%).

These declines follow steep drops in violent crime and property crime in 2023, according to preliminary data. In 2022, there was also an decrease in violent crime, while property crime increased slightly but remained near a 30-year low. In 2021, violent crime and property crime were flat. There was a spike in the homicide rate in 2020, when Trump was president, but overall levels remained well below their peak in the 1990s. 

Many Americans have misconceptions about crime trends. A Gallup poll last November found "77% [of Americans] believe there is more crime in the U.S. than a year ago." 

"This data makes clear that last year’s historic decline in violent crime is continuing," Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. "This continued historic decline in homicides does not represent abstract statistics. It represents people whose lives were saved — people who are still here to see their children grow up, to work toward fulfilling their dreams, and to contribute to their communities."

Crime analyst Jeff Asher cautions that while the FBI data for 2024 shows a "massive decline in crime across the board," it is "extremely preliminary with agencies having months to report new incidents and correct problems." Still, the initial data shows such a steep decline that "crime almost certainly declined nationally in the first three months of 2024 compared to the first three months of 2023," likely by "a healthy amount."

The FBI data is consistent with data from cities which shows murder in 2024 is down 18.3% compared to the same period last year. Many large cities are experiencing even sharper declines, including Baltimore (-41%), Philadelphia (-41%), San Francisco (-36%), Phoenix (-29%), Detroit (-25%), and Washington, DC (-24%).

How will Trump respond to new data? Earlier this year, in an interview with TIME magazine, Trump was asked to respond to the fact that violent crime declined in 2022 and 2023. His response was that the FBI data was faked.

TIME: Okay, sir. Violent crime is going down throughout the country. There was a 6% drop in—

Trump: I don't believe it. 

TIME: You don’t believe that?

Trump: Yeah, they’re fake numbers. 

TIME: You think so?

Trump: Well it came out last night. The FBI gave fake numbers.

TIME: I didn't see that, but the FBI said that there was a 13% drop [in homicides] in 2023. 

Trump: I don’t believe it. No, it’s a lie. It’s fake news.

The TIME interviewer correctly pointed out that the data was collected by local police departments, and the FBI simply aggregated the data. "Well, maybe, maybe not," Trump said. "The FBI fudged the numbers, and other people fudged numbers. There is no way that crime went down over the last year."