The unraveling of the war in Iran
Since the outset of the Iran War on February 28, President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that things are going well. Within a few days, Trump began declaring that the war was “won” and nearly over.
“We’re knocking the crap out of them. I think it’s going very well,” Trump told CNN on March 2.
“We’re doing very well on the war front -- to put it mildly, I would say. Somebody said, ‘On a scale of 10, where would you rate it?’ I said about a 15,” Trump said at a meeting with tech executives on March 4.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much… If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense,” Trump declared in an interview with CBS News on March 9.
“Let me say we’ve won… You never like to say too early you won. We won. We won,” Trump said at a rally on March 11.
“The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both militarily, economically, and in every other way,” Trump asserted on Truth Social on March 14.
“As far as I’m concerned, we’ve essentially defeated Iran,” Trump said aboard Air Force One on March 15.
“I think we’ve won,” Trump told reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on March 20.
Despite Trump’s claims, the war in Iran is not going well.
More than 1,500 people have died, including over 100 school children and 13 U.S. troops. American taxpayers are on the hook for tens of billions of dollars. And all Americans are facing dramatically higher energy prices because the Iranians have closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route, to most tankers.
In sum, the U.S. military is mired in a deadly conflict with no clear objectives or exit strategy. According to a report in the Washington Post, the new “goal” of the military campaign is to open the Strait of Hormuz, returning the region to the status quo before the war began.
In recent days, Trump has responded to the deteriorating situation with a series of erratic, disturbing, and puzzling moves.
Trump’s $14 billion gift to Iran
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that, in an attempt to lower oil prices, the Treasury Department was temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. The license, which extends through April 19, will allow most countries to purchase oil from Iran that was already loaded onto a ship as of Friday.
“By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran,” Bessent wrote in a post on X.
But lifting sanctions on Iranian oil could bring a financial windfall to Iran at the same time that the U.S. is in a war with the country. In the post, Bessent argued that “Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system.” But it is not clear how the U.S. could prevent Iran from accessing the revenue.
According to NBC, at current prices as of March 21, the amount of Iranian oil that the Trump administration lifted sanctions on “would be worth more than $14 billion for Tehran.”
Trump has repeatedly criticized the Obama administration for giving Iran access to cash. “We gave $1.8 billion in cash. That’s actual cash, barrels of cash. It’s insane. It’s ridiculous,” Trump said in 2018. The Obama administration agreed to give Iran around $1.7 billion in cash to “resolve an arms contract between the United States and Iran that predated the Iranian revolution in 1979.” This was money that Iran had originally paid to the U.S. and was subject to an extended legal dispute. It was also a fraction of what Iran could earn from the lifting of sanctions.
Trump has also criticized part of the Iran nuclear deal that allowed Iran to access some assets held abroad that were frozen under sanctions. The exact amount is not clear, with estimates ranging from $25 billion to $150 billion. As part of the deal, the Obama administration received a pledge that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons and an agreement for robust inspections. The Trump administration, on the other hand, lifted sanctions against Iran in exchange for nothing.
When asked Monday about the decision to lift the sanctions on Iranian oil and his previous criticism of the Obama administration giving Iran cash, Trump said, “I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible. And we don’t even know if Iran gets that money. Frankly, I think it’s very hard for them to get it.” Trump added, “Any small amount of money that Iran gets is not going to have any difference in this war.”
Trump threatens to commit a war crime
On Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must “FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT” the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. If that didn’t occur, Trump said he would order the U.S. military to “obliterate” Iran’s “various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”
There were a few problems with this threat. First, what Trump is describing is illegal. The Geneva Conventions prohibit civilian targets, including the “extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.” Trump is not arguing that the power plants providing electricity to Iranian civilians serve a military purpose. He is simply using the power plants as leverage to coerce Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Ben Saul, UN special rapporteur on counterterrorism and human rights, said that the power plant attack described by Trump would constitute a war crime.
Second, Iran immediately rejected Trump’s threat and said that if Trump attacked their power plants, Iran would retaliate against other energy infrastructure in the region. Trump’s threat was motivated by a desire to have oil prices, which have increased dramatically, return to normal. But the prospect of a significant escalation of the war created additional uncertainty and further increased prices.
Finally, following through on his threat to destroy Iranian power plants would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So Trump was left to either follow through on his ultimatum, making the situation worse, or abruptly change course.
Trump chose the second option.
Trump makes suspect claim of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran
On Monday morning, with markets poised to plummet on the prospect of an indefinite and economically damaging war, Trump made a surprise announcement. The United States and Iran had a diplomatic breakthrough and, as a result, were poised to end the war. Trump said the strikes on Iranian power plants would be postponed for five days.
I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.
An Israeli official, seeking to bolster Trump’s claims, told Axios that “U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been in touch with the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.”
Iran, however, immediately denied that any such conversations took place. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Ghalibaf posted on X. The Iranian Foreign Ministry acknowledged “initiatives by regional countries to de-escalate tensions,” suggesting indirect communication through proxies.
Pressed on what had occurred, Trump played coy. He declined to name the Iranian officials involved in the alleged discussions. But he also claimed that Iran and the United States had come to 15 “major points of agreement.” Among them, according to Trump, Iran has agreed that it is “not going to have a nuclear weapon.” He did not specify the other 15 points.
The fact that, at this point, Iran is contesting the existence of negotiations raises significant doubt that the United States and Iran have reached a comprehensive agreement that could end the war.
The complete ineptitude of this administration is absolutely stunning. The truth seems to be the exact opposite of what our liar-in-chief says. Keep up the factual reporting Judd!
A few thoughts here.
1. The Iranian government seems more believable than ours. Let that sink in.
2. The markets i.e. the wealth class are still under the belief that you can take Trump’s word on something which explains the market reaction yesterday.
3. Most importantly, Iran doesn’t have to win battles to win the war, they just have to not surrender. History has shown this to be true time and time again when a undermanned foe eventually wins an unexpected victory. It is how Afghanistan drove the Soviets out. Vietnam did it with the U.S. and it is how we won our Revolution.