Why so many Americans have misconceptions about crime trends

According to the latest FBI data, violent crime and property crime are down sharply in 2024. The new data shows substantial drops in every category, including murder (-26.4%), rape (-25.7%), robbery (-17.8%), and property crime (-15.1%). These declines follow steep drops in violent crime and property crime in 2023. 

And yet, according to a recent Gallup poll, "77% [of Americans] believe there is more crime in the U.S. than a year ago." Why?

There are two key factors. First, high-profile politicians are constantly making false claims about crime rates in the United States. For example, speaking at a Black church in Detroit last Saturday, former President Trump said the following:

We'll bring back public safety and defend our communities for law-abiding American citizens. The crime is most rampant right here in African American communities. And more people see me, and they say, "Sir, we want protection. We want the police to protect us. We don't want to get robbed, and mugged, and beat up, or killed because we want to walk across the street and buy a loaf of bread." They want it so badly. Fake news doesn't talk about it.  

But most people do not watch Trump deliver remarks live. The second factor creating misconceptions about crime is how these comments are covered by major media outlets. Here is how Trump's remarks were covered in the Washington Post:

Note that if readers simply read this headline, they would not know that Trump's claims about "rampant crime" are false. Worse, you would not know that Trump's claims about crime are false if you read the entire article. You do learn that "recent polls show Trump has made gains with Black men, alarming some Democrats because even a small change in Black turnout or preferences could tip such pivotal states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia." The Washington Post also notes that the event included two Black men Trump is considering as his running mate, former HUD Secretary Ben Carson (R) and Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL). The piece also criticizes Trump for "playing on racial stereotypes, such as his suggestion that Black voters will look more favorably on his candidacy now that he has a mug shot and has faced criminal prosecution." But accurate information on crime in Detroit — and the nation — is completely missing. 

The fact is that, in 2023, homicides in Detroit reached a 57-year low, recording the fewest homicides since 1966. 

There were also double-digit declines in non-fatal shootings and carjackings. And a smaller decline (-1%) in total violent crime. In 2024, homicides in Detroit are down an additional 21.7% through June 12. 

A similar scenario played out on ABC's This Week last Sunday during an interview with Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), a Trump surrogate. Scott launched a long, factually incorrect rant about skyrocketing crime under Biden:

What we need to focus on, Jon, is the violence that we're seeing across this nation. Under Joe Biden we've seen the greatest increase in violent crime in my lifetime. And so focusing on ways for us to reduce that crime means getting four more years of Donald Trump. Under Donald Trump we actually respected law enforcement.

Under Joe Biden, we've seen the movement to defund the police, leaving communities like the one I grew up in devastated and ravaged by a wave of violent crime that we have not seen literally in five decades.

To his credit, moderator Jon Karl attempts to correct the record. "Actually, senator as I – as you probably know, the latest stats on violent crime and on the murder rate, they're actually down this past year," Karl said. Karl is correct, but violent crime did not just decline in the past year — violent crime has declined in every year of Biden's presidency. 

Scott was undeterred. "Let's take a look at those crime rates," Scott said. "We've seen over 4,000 shootings just in the city of Chicago. We've seen a spike in violent crime. It's nice to see something plateau. But the fact of the matter is simple, under Joe Biden neighborhoods like the ones I grew up in have never been ravaged."

There were 4,068 shootings in Chicago in 2020, the last year Trump was president. In 2023, Chicago had 2,942 shootings, a decline of 28%. Through June 15, shootings in Chicago are down another 5.6% year-to-date. Chicago is still a dangerous city, but violent crime has not plateaued — it has declined since Biden took office. 

Karl, however, made no effort to correct Scott's statement. He said, "OK," and moved on to another topic. 

Americans' views on crime are influenced by how the issue is covered in the media. The media is relaying false statements about crime in America by Trump and other Republicans. And many media outlets appear unable or unwilling to correct the record.