As someone who doesn’t gamble, perhaps I’m missing how this easily rigged, permissive odds-making model isn’t considered an obvious, silly scam by most would-be users. The temptation to trade on insider info is enormous (and not against the rules…!?)
You're not missing anything. It's *meant* to be rigged - and people know it. Casinos are rigged in the houses favor, it's easy information to find, yet people still go to casinos. Sports and other betting, crypto, the stock market - all are rigged and any pretense otherwise is for fools. You can rest easy in that your assessment is absolutely, positively correct.
So, Mansour's response to the idea that Bad Bunny's dancers betting based on insider information doesn't sound like a fair trade is to...insist that, no, it *is* fair? Pardon me if I'm not convinced. Kalshi sounds like another financial market that will go dangerously un- or under-regulated. Concerning, to say the least.
These sites much different and far more dangerous than sports betting. Sports are incentivized to win and while there are those that will manipulate outcomes for their financial benefit it is still just a game. These sites can affect policy including combat actions that could affect millions of lives.
Agree. Bad idea all around. What is stopping Admin staff from betting on which state ICE will blanket next and/or what country we may bomb? And trying to influence policy makers to do just that?
I’m concerned this is throwing shade on the dancers (who are mostly minorities already being denigrated by the right). I realize mentioning the dancers is just an example, but shouldn’t we be talking about Trump and members of Congress trading on insider information? Or just Trump, his family and his cabinet who have access to global financial and national security information?
Perhaps this story is about Twump and his band of criminal actors in the WH. Have not we always said that the actions of the administration would be seen as permission (by his "friends") to do the same? Isn't this betting and predicting just that? An open field of corruption with very few people, who acted illegally, making all the money and the rest of us sitting with our empty wallets and a lot of explaining to do. Copy cat? Monkey see monkey do. (apologies to the cats and monkeys).
Clear as mud. Ya roll the dice and take your chances unless they are loaded. I've never heard of Kalshi or Polymarket. Not a gambler, but seems like cheating to me. Like the kid who carefully keeps an eyelid open to see how many fingers are held up.
Joseph Mangano is right on…Martha the stock market is regulated. Yes, there is cheating but rules in place taken off & on by each administration. Guess which administration’s take off more than on? 1.8 billion bet on Super Bowl. Pathetic! Guess what was going on before the Great Depression? Same story!
Same nonsense. Just more sophisticated now. Judd this was a well reported and needed subject.
Keep in mind that the whole concept of “prediction markets” is the conceit that they are not about betting per se, but about information — Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (along with the professor whose ideas inspired these markets) believes insider trading is a feature, not a bug. The gist is that if you have inside information and thus are willing to bet a lot of money that you’re right, people should listen to you.
This is not a new idea, of course, and in addition to the risk of individual bettors losing their shirts, it also creates incentives for people with inside information to throw the match, as it were, which manipulates the very events people are betting on. The danger is obvious, which is a key reason Polymarket is offshore, but it’s hard to see how it will be stopped at this point.
It's Fool's Gold- just like our whole administration. When will we buckle up and take back our country from these lying crooks- all of them, top to bottom ?
It's bad enough to wake up with a hangover on Super Bowl Monday, but to wake up broke is perhaps more painful. For young'uns trying to decide what field to go into: gambling addiction might be a good career to explore, seems to be a growing entity.
As for the cheating and the predictions market, say what? It's like serving ice cream and candy to an obese child. It's like pouring a drink for your friend struggling with recovery. ("Just one drink isn't going to hurt you."). It's like handing a gun to a suicidal person. It's like looking at the clock in Vegas and...oh, yeah, no clocks, permission to keep going because you know my luck gotta change. If this shit exists, the weight gain, the relapse, the gun going off, the gambler inside is going to get out.
As someone who doesn’t gamble, perhaps I’m missing how this easily rigged, permissive odds-making model isn’t considered an obvious, silly scam by most would-be users. The temptation to trade on insider info is enormous (and not against the rules…!?)
You're not missing anything. It's *meant* to be rigged - and people know it. Casinos are rigged in the houses favor, it's easy information to find, yet people still go to casinos. Sports and other betting, crypto, the stock market - all are rigged and any pretense otherwise is for fools. You can rest easy in that your assessment is absolutely, positively correct.
So, Mansour's response to the idea that Bad Bunny's dancers betting based on insider information doesn't sound like a fair trade is to...insist that, no, it *is* fair? Pardon me if I'm not convinced. Kalshi sounds like another financial market that will go dangerously un- or under-regulated. Concerning, to say the least.
These sites much different and far more dangerous than sports betting. Sports are incentivized to win and while there are those that will manipulate outcomes for their financial benefit it is still just a game. These sites can affect policy including combat actions that could affect millions of lives.
Agree. Bad idea all around. What is stopping Admin staff from betting on which state ICE will blanket next and/or what country we may bomb? And trying to influence policy makers to do just that?
How many murders will happen in the month of December in Houston?
How many rapes will be reported in Maine in March?
How many car crashes will result in fatalities in the United State in the week of...
Even if it cannot be manipulated, the idea of betting on these things is not far fetched is it?
Is it?
I’m concerned this is throwing shade on the dancers (who are mostly minorities already being denigrated by the right). I realize mentioning the dancers is just an example, but shouldn’t we be talking about Trump and members of Congress trading on insider information? Or just Trump, his family and his cabinet who have access to global financial and national security information?
Perhaps this story is about Twump and his band of criminal actors in the WH. Have not we always said that the actions of the administration would be seen as permission (by his "friends") to do the same? Isn't this betting and predicting just that? An open field of corruption with very few people, who acted illegally, making all the money and the rest of us sitting with our empty wallets and a lot of explaining to do. Copy cat? Monkey see monkey do. (apologies to the cats and monkeys).
Clear as mud. Ya roll the dice and take your chances unless they are loaded. I've never heard of Kalshi or Polymarket. Not a gambler, but seems like cheating to me. Like the kid who carefully keeps an eyelid open to see how many fingers are held up.
I think I understand now. The stock market is gambling. Insider trading is cheating. Duh. Double speak.
Caveat emptor!
Joseph Mangano is right on…Martha the stock market is regulated. Yes, there is cheating but rules in place taken off & on by each administration. Guess which administration’s take off more than on? 1.8 billion bet on Super Bowl. Pathetic! Guess what was going on before the Great Depression? Same story!
Same nonsense. Just more sophisticated now. Judd this was a well reported and needed subject.
We thank you!
Keep in mind that the whole concept of “prediction markets” is the conceit that they are not about betting per se, but about information — Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (along with the professor whose ideas inspired these markets) believes insider trading is a feature, not a bug. The gist is that if you have inside information and thus are willing to bet a lot of money that you’re right, people should listen to you.
This is not a new idea, of course, and in addition to the risk of individual bettors losing their shirts, it also creates incentives for people with inside information to throw the match, as it were, which manipulates the very events people are betting on. The danger is obvious, which is a key reason Polymarket is offshore, but it’s hard to see how it will be stopped at this point.
I predict a mell of a hess!
Massachusetts has disallowed sports betting on Kalshi
Wouldn't be easier just to eliminate prop bets?
furthermore, looks like legalizing gambling might have been a mistake!
It's Fool's Gold- just like our whole administration. When will we buckle up and take back our country from these lying crooks- all of them, top to bottom ?
It's bad enough to wake up with a hangover on Super Bowl Monday, but to wake up broke is perhaps more painful. For young'uns trying to decide what field to go into: gambling addiction might be a good career to explore, seems to be a growing entity.
As for the cheating and the predictions market, say what? It's like serving ice cream and candy to an obese child. It's like pouring a drink for your friend struggling with recovery. ("Just one drink isn't going to hurt you."). It's like handing a gun to a suicidal person. It's like looking at the clock in Vegas and...oh, yeah, no clocks, permission to keep going because you know my luck gotta change. If this shit exists, the weight gain, the relapse, the gun going off, the gambler inside is going to get out.