As someone who doesn’t gamble, perhaps I’m missing how this easily rigged, permissive odds-making model isn’t considered an obvious, silly scam by most would-be users. The temptation to trade on insider info is enormous (and not against the rules…!?)
You're not missing anything. It's *meant* to be rigged - and people know it. Casinos are rigged in the houses favor, it's easy information to find, yet people still go to casinos. Sports and other betting, crypto, the stock market - all are rigged and any pretense otherwise is for fools. You can rest easy in that your assessment is absolutely, positively correct.
People have been convincing themselves they can beat the house for a long time, and the incredible amount of advertising dollars spent is only expanding that pool. Plus, increasing economic inequality makes people more desperate for a windfall. Once you're addicted to gambling you'll bet on anything, because anticipating a win *feels* like being a winner.
So, Mansour's response to the idea that Bad Bunny's dancers betting based on insider information doesn't sound like a fair trade is to...insist that, no, it *is* fair? Pardon me if I'm not convinced. Kalshi sounds like another financial market that will go dangerously un- or under-regulated. Concerning, to say the least.
These sites much different and far more dangerous than sports betting. Sports are incentivized to win and while there are those that will manipulate outcomes for their financial benefit it is still just a game. These sites can affect policy including combat actions that could affect millions of lives.
Agree. Bad idea all around. What is stopping Admin staff from betting on which state ICE will blanket next and/or what country we may bomb? And trying to influence policy makers to do just that?
Joseph Mangano is right on…Martha the stock market is regulated. Yes, there is cheating but rules in place taken off & on by each administration. Guess which administration’s take off more than on? 1.8 billion bet on Super Bowl. Pathetic! Guess what was going on before the Great Depression? Same story!
Same nonsense. Just more sophisticated now. Judd this was a well reported and needed subject.
I’m concerned this is throwing shade on the dancers (who are mostly minorities already being denigrated by the right). I realize mentioning the dancers is just an example, but shouldn’t we be talking about Trump and members of Congress trading on insider information? Or just Trump, his family and his cabinet who have access to global financial and national security information?
Perhaps this story is about Twump and his band of criminal actors in the WH. Have not we always said that the actions of the administration would be seen as permission (by his "friends") to do the same? Isn't this betting and predicting just that? An open field of corruption with very few people, who acted illegally, making all the money and the rest of us sitting with our empty wallets and a lot of explaining to do. Copy cat? Monkey see monkey do. (apologies to the cats and monkeys).
Clear as mud. Ya roll the dice and take your chances unless they are loaded. I've never heard of Kalshi or Polymarket. Not a gambler, but seems like cheating to me. Like the kid who carefully keeps an eyelid open to see how many fingers are held up.
A friend and I commented recently that the American economy seems to be running on AI, crypto, gambling, and porn. Nothing but scams and grifts. Several people have said the same basically after watching the Super Bowl ads. This is very bad.
Forensic accounting and financial fraud investigator Harry Markopolos used public information to show that Madoff was a fraud years before it was accepted by the general population. The general population either was not aware of, or discounted Harry's information to be worthless. The few who recognized the value his information provided never invested with Madof. This is the Information economy and Prediction markets are where information is traded, But the only way to profit in this market is to run the trading platform or cheat. Prediction markets rely on people making foolish choices, much like the results of the 2024 election.
It's Fool's Gold- just like our whole administration. When will we buckle up and take back our country from these lying crooks- all of them, top to bottom ?
Keep in mind that the whole concept of “prediction markets” is the conceit that they are not about betting per se, but about information — Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (along with the professor whose ideas inspired these markets) believes insider trading is a feature, not a bug. The gist is that if you have inside information and thus are willing to bet a lot of money that you’re right, people should listen to you.
This is not a new idea, of course, and in addition to the risk of individual bettors losing their shirts, it also creates incentives for people with inside information to throw the match, as it were, which manipulates the very events people are betting on. The danger is obvious, which is a key reason Polymarket is offshore, but it’s hard to see how it will be stopped at this point.
My main fear with gambling on sports is that corruption will eventually take root, and that all integrity in sports will be at risk. It could ruin our trust in game outcomes, and if that happens, the damage cannot be undone.
As someone who doesn’t gamble, perhaps I’m missing how this easily rigged, permissive odds-making model isn’t considered an obvious, silly scam by most would-be users. The temptation to trade on insider info is enormous (and not against the rules…!?)
You're not missing anything. It's *meant* to be rigged - and people know it. Casinos are rigged in the houses favor, it's easy information to find, yet people still go to casinos. Sports and other betting, crypto, the stock market - all are rigged and any pretense otherwise is for fools. You can rest easy in that your assessment is absolutely, positively correct.
People have been convincing themselves they can beat the house for a long time, and the incredible amount of advertising dollars spent is only expanding that pool. Plus, increasing economic inequality makes people more desperate for a windfall. Once you're addicted to gambling you'll bet on anything, because anticipating a win *feels* like being a winner.
So, Mansour's response to the idea that Bad Bunny's dancers betting based on insider information doesn't sound like a fair trade is to...insist that, no, it *is* fair? Pardon me if I'm not convinced. Kalshi sounds like another financial market that will go dangerously un- or under-regulated. Concerning, to say the least.
These sites much different and far more dangerous than sports betting. Sports are incentivized to win and while there are those that will manipulate outcomes for their financial benefit it is still just a game. These sites can affect policy including combat actions that could affect millions of lives.
Agree. Bad idea all around. What is stopping Admin staff from betting on which state ICE will blanket next and/or what country we may bomb? And trying to influence policy makers to do just that?
How many murders will happen in the month of December in Houston?
How many rapes will be reported in Maine in March?
How many car crashes will result in fatalities in the United State in the week of...
Even if it cannot be manipulated, the idea of betting on these things is not far fetched is it?
Is it?
Joseph Mangano is right on…Martha the stock market is regulated. Yes, there is cheating but rules in place taken off & on by each administration. Guess which administration’s take off more than on? 1.8 billion bet on Super Bowl. Pathetic! Guess what was going on before the Great Depression? Same story!
Same nonsense. Just more sophisticated now. Judd this was a well reported and needed subject.
We thank you!
I’m concerned this is throwing shade on the dancers (who are mostly minorities already being denigrated by the right). I realize mentioning the dancers is just an example, but shouldn’t we be talking about Trump and members of Congress trading on insider information? Or just Trump, his family and his cabinet who have access to global financial and national security information?
Perhaps this story is about Twump and his band of criminal actors in the WH. Have not we always said that the actions of the administration would be seen as permission (by his "friends") to do the same? Isn't this betting and predicting just that? An open field of corruption with very few people, who acted illegally, making all the money and the rest of us sitting with our empty wallets and a lot of explaining to do. Copy cat? Monkey see monkey do. (apologies to the cats and monkeys).
Clear as mud. Ya roll the dice and take your chances unless they are loaded. I've never heard of Kalshi or Polymarket. Not a gambler, but seems like cheating to me. Like the kid who carefully keeps an eyelid open to see how many fingers are held up.
I think I understand now. The stock market is gambling. Insider trading is cheating. Duh. Double speak.
The stock market is essentially betting with other people's money.
The stock market is betting with other people's money.
The stock market is betting with other people's money.
I placed a bet that you would post your single comment four times. I lost a bundle, Bob.
A friend and I commented recently that the American economy seems to be running on AI, crypto, gambling, and porn. Nothing but scams and grifts. Several people have said the same basically after watching the Super Bowl ads. This is very bad.
Wouldn't be easier just to eliminate prop bets?
furthermore, looks like legalizing gambling might have been a mistake!
Forensic accounting and financial fraud investigator Harry Markopolos used public information to show that Madoff was a fraud years before it was accepted by the general population. The general population either was not aware of, or discounted Harry's information to be worthless. The few who recognized the value his information provided never invested with Madof. This is the Information economy and Prediction markets are where information is traded, But the only way to profit in this market is to run the trading platform or cheat. Prediction markets rely on people making foolish choices, much like the results of the 2024 election.
Massachusetts has disallowed sports betting on Kalshi
Why? It seems an area less affected by insider trading as no one knows who the winner will be.
It's Fool's Gold- just like our whole administration. When will we buckle up and take back our country from these lying crooks- all of them, top to bottom ?
Keep in mind that the whole concept of “prediction markets” is the conceit that they are not about betting per se, but about information — Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (along with the professor whose ideas inspired these markets) believes insider trading is a feature, not a bug. The gist is that if you have inside information and thus are willing to bet a lot of money that you’re right, people should listen to you.
This is not a new idea, of course, and in addition to the risk of individual bettors losing their shirts, it also creates incentives for people with inside information to throw the match, as it were, which manipulates the very events people are betting on. The danger is obvious, which is a key reason Polymarket is offshore, but it’s hard to see how it will be stopped at this point.
I predict a mell of a hess!
Caveat emptor!
My main fear with gambling on sports is that corruption will eventually take root, and that all integrity in sports will be at risk. It could ruin our trust in game outcomes, and if that happens, the damage cannot be undone.