Cash bail myths debunked by plummeting city crime data

According to President Trump, large American cities are crime-infested hellholes.

Last month, Trump claimed that cities run by Democrats have “heavy crime” and called Los Angeles a “trash heap with entire neighborhoods under the control of transnational gangs and criminal networks.” Earlier this year, Trump said that “[i]n major cities like New York, Chicago and Washington, mothers can’t walk their children to the park without fear of being shot or killed or raped or anything.”

Now, Trump is linking this alleged crime spike to bail reform policies, which allow some individuals to be released before trial without monetary bail, depending on the type of crime. The aim is to move away from a system in which wealthy people can await trial in freedom while the poor remain incarcerated.

In a Monday post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that "CASHLESS BAIL" was a complete disaster. He said cities that implemented these policies saw crime "significantly rise," with "[t]he WORST criminals… flooding our streets."

The data tells a completely different story.

Crime rates are hitting historic lows in many cities across the country, including in cities that have implemented bail reform policies. Moreover, studies have found “no evidence that bail reform affects crime rates.”

The success of LA's zero-bail policy

For nearly two years, Los Angeles County Superior Court, which has jurisdiction over the city of Los Angeles, has been operating under a zero-bail policy. Despite Trump's claims, releasing people without cash bail has not flooded LA’s streets with violent criminals. Instead, the policy has coincided with declining violent and nonviolent crime rates in the county.

The court announced its zero-bail policy in October 2023. Under the bail guidelines, most people arrested for nonviolent minor offenses are either released after arrest or booked at a jail and then released with $0 bail. Those who commit nonviolent crimes that pose a greater threat to the community are released with $0 bail and some nonmonetary conditions, such as requirements to show up to all court dates or avoid substance use. Monetary bail remains in use for people charged with domestic violence or other violent crimes.

Although the county’s zero-bail policy is not the only factor in LA’s crime rate, its implementation has coincided with a period of historic declines in crime. In 2024, homicides in LA were down 14% compared to 2023, with the number of shooting victims down 19%. Other violent and property crimes also saw significant decreases. This trend continued in the first half of 2025, with homicides decreasing by 20%. In June, LA had the fewest number of homicides since 1966.

According to the Real-Time Crime Index, crime rates in LA County as a whole are also falling, with violent crime down nearly 7% and nonviolent crime down almost 12%.

A report from the LA County Superior Court found that the 2023 bail policy resulted in more people being released from jail while they awaited trial, but fewer people committing new criminal offenses during their pre-trial release than before the policy was implemented.

A previous zero-bail policy, which was implemented as a Covid emergency measure from 2020 to 2022, is further evidence that limiting cash bail does not lead to a spike in crime. A 2024 study from the California Policy Lab found that after the county ended the Covid-era policy in 2022, the local jail population increased, but the county’s crime rate did not go down. It also showed that when the current bail policy was implemented in 2023, the jail population immediately decreased, but the crime rate saw no impact in the two months after the policy went into effect.

Major cash bail restrictions in San Francisco

Like Los Angeles, San Francisco has made changes to its bail system in the last several years to reduce the use of cash bail. In 2020, newly elected progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin announced that his office would completely eliminate the use of cash bail and placed limitations on who could be detained while they awaited trial. Ultimately, Boudin was recalled in 2022 over concerns about property crime during the pandemic and a rise in homicides in San Francisco that mirrored the increase across the country. While Boudin’s successor, Brooke Jenkins, has reinstated cash bail for certain offenses, its use remains highly limited.

Under the city’s current policy, cash bail is only used when the DA’s office has clear evidence that without monetary bail, a person will pose a public safety or flight risk, has repeatedly committed criminal offenses in the past, or has failed to meet less restrictive nonmonetary bond conditions in the past.

While San Francisco has stopped relying on cash bail, crime rates in the city have fallen to historic lows. In 2024, robberies were down 21.8% compared to 2023 and homicides were down 31.4%. The property crime rate in San Francisco also saw a significant drop in 2024: down 31% from 2023 and 46% from pre-pandemic levels. In the first half of 2025, this trend has held. This year, property crime is down almost another 30%. In June, San Francisco had the fewest number of murders since they started tracking the data in 1960.

New Orleans ended cash bail

In 2015, New Orleans spent over $6 million to hold people in jail who were only there because they could not pay their bail. Two years later, the New Orleans City Council unanimously approved an ordinance to end cash bail for most offenses tried in the city’s municipal courts.

For most nonviolent offenses, a person is released without bail and expected to appear at an initial court appearance the following business day. For more serious offenses, such as domestic violence or assault, a person is held until their initial court hearing — within 24 hours of arrest — and then released. After that hearing, if the court finds no significant public safety or flight risk, they are released without bail. If there is a risk, the court sets nonmonetary conditions of release. Cash bail is only used in extreme circumstances for serious offenses.

Like other U.S. cities, New Orleans experienced an uptick in homicides and other crimes during the pandemic. But it has also experienced similarly historic declines in the last few years, with some offenses dropping well below pre-pandemic levels. In 2024, overall crime in New Orleans was down when compared to 2023 and compared to 2019. Homicides were down 35%, nonfatal shootings decreased 42%, and armed robberies decreased 30% in 2024. Despite the January 1 terrorist attack that killed 14 people this year, New Orleans has had the fewest murders through June of any year since 1970. Other violent crimes are also down significantly in 2025 and property crime has declined by as much as 23.5%.

Philadelphia curbs cash bail

In 2018, Philadelphia eliminated the use of cash bail for some low-level offenses. Under the policy, cash bail can still be used with discretion for low-level offenses in certain circumstances, such as repeated crimes. The District Attorney’s office argued that the cash bail system is “rife with injustice and exacerbates socio-economic and racial inequalities, disproportionately penalizing the poor and people of color.”

The policy change "substantially increased the percentage and number of felony and misdemeanor defendants released on recognizance,” but the percentage of people who were re-arrested before trial decreased slightly after the policy was put in place, according to a report by the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.

While Philadelphia saw an increase in crime coinciding with the pandemic, crime is now reaching historic lows. In the first six months of this year, Philadelphia reported “the fewest murders since 1969,” according to crime analyst Jeff Asher. As of July 22, preliminary data from the Philadelphia Police Department reported a 14% decrease in homicides compared with the same period last year, along with a 22% decrease in shooting incidents.

Philadelphia also saw significant decreases in crime in 2024. Last year, homicide rates in Philadelphia were the lowest they had been in a decade, dropping 34%. Philadelphia also saw an 8% decrease in overall violent crime, a 10% decrease in property crime offenses, and a 29% decrease in shooting incidents in 2024.

Other cities with decreasing crime rates

Despite Trump’s claims of heavy crime in Chicago and Washington, D.C., both cities are also experiencing significant decreases in crime. In Washington, D.C., violent crime rates reached a 30-year low in 2024, with homicides decreasing 32%. So far in 2025, crime in D.C. has continued to decrease, with rates of overall crime down 8% compared to the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the Metropolitan Police Department.

Chicago has seen “fewer than 200 homicides in the first six months of [2025] for the first time in more than a decade,” according to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. In 2024, Chicago saw decreases in “homicides, shooting incidents and shooting victims, all marking the lowest levels since 2019,” according to a press release from the Chicago Police Department.