Where was Trump's concern for the safety of American cities when he released 1600 convicted criminals from prison, many of whom were convicted for violent offenses against police officers?!
It is also important to note that in times of high employment (low unemployment), crime rates tend to drop because people are busy working and able to pay their bills. This variable seems to be left out of many analyses of crime rates. Given that, we can anticipate that crime rates will rise again as unemployment rises.
The other stat missing here, is rural crime rates. Sure, cities are interesting to look at, but as a city dweller for decades, I want to know if our conditions make us more murderous, easier to study or actually doing well when compared to our fellow Americans in small towns and suburbs.
Signe K, I taught Criminology and studied the statistics for over four decades. As much as it would seem likely that poverty causes crime: that just is not true. Unemployment is certainly an important issue which deserves our attention. I searched vainly for a long time to find a causal relationship there. But, whatever relationship does exist, it is not that simple. It would be so nice, from an epistemological point of view, if crime rates went up and down in simple correspondence with employment levels. But they do not.
The whole idea of "cause and effect" in the social sciences is fraught with epistemological difficulties. Cause and effect are usually easy to see in physics, chemistry and biology. But there are fields of study in which the relationship is not easy to establish: Weather and meteorological studies, aeronautical engineering, quantum physics, and the social sciences in general, eg. psychology, sociology, anthropology, economics, etc.
First we must be cautious about ignoring the basic elements of crime. Crime is a human act which is prohibited by a legal statute that defines the crime. So it is obvious that crime is created by a legislator [or other legal authority] with a pencil. Before you react against this seemingly silly claim; think about it for a while. Look at Marijuana for example. It was not a crime to traffic in it or use it until 1937 when the Marijuana Tax Act was passed. Then, all those who had been trafficking and using the plant became criminals.
You might object by saying this kind of logic cannot be applied to violent crimes like homicide. But look again. Various branches of government engage in homicide legally. It is euphemistically called punishment, or deterrent. Is the Hangman a criminal?
It took me many years to realize that when a group of people come to the understanding that their community has no commitment to their well being, when that group of people have little or no stake in the community; to that extent, those people have a high probability of feeling no commitment to the laws and norms of the community, and they are more likely to violate those laws and norms. Also, if the social structure provides great opportunities for a person to gain wealth and status by inequitably available paths, if it is also understood that they are not required to be committed to the well being of the community, but can subordinate the community to their own desires, there is again great likelihood that some will use their power to violate the law.
In somewhat oversimplified form, this is the theory of crime which revealed itself from examining statistics on crime, and teaching inferential statistics at the undergraduate level.
You make good points. But look at my comment again. I did not state that the ONLY variables are "busy" and "able to pay." What happens when people are "busy" and "able to pay" is also that they have less time and energy to engage in what may have previously been their income source (ie criminal activities); in addition, they have less stress. Poverty causes stress, and stress causes a variety of negative outcomes, including poor physical and mental health. Indeed, there are a plethora of variables. But I hope you would acknowledge that gainful employment, for some, also adds an element of HOPE for a brighter future in which to be able to control some aspects of their wellbeing, and thus, a lesser likelihood of criminal behavior. There are no simple solutions here; I understand that. Long ago I was a Fulbright Scholar doing independent research on prison education in Denmark, having worked in that industry via high education in the late 70's and early 80's.
Signe K, I do not know how to respond to your complete response to what I said because I do not understand what you are saying when you say: "I did not state that the ONLY variables are 'busy' and 'able to pay.' " I think you are making the epistemological mistake of thinking about variables here. There have been no variables stated or implied. It is a mistake to think in those terms.
In your original comment to This blog you said: " in times of high employment (low unemployment) crime rates tend to drop." After four+ decades of looking at crime statistics, I found too many examples of this being untrue to be able to support such a claim. It just is not true. I think many wish it were true, because that would be an epistemologically elegant theory. But it is a form of wishful thinking. This is what sparked my response to you.
When it comes to crime and punishment in society I might, in a weak moment, wish we could be more like Denmark, or many other countries for that matter. The U.S. has an enormous number of people in its prison system. More than any other country. Which you are no doubt aware of. The 14th amendment in our constitution does not apply to those in prison. This too is conveniently ignored.
I am old enough to remember how for decades the mass media in this country referred frequently to the Russian gulag. Never did I see any reference to the American gulag. We never seemed to have our Solzhenitsyn. The whole thing in the American press was simply part of the anti-USSR hysteria among our elite. The obvious implication was that socialism inevitably brings with it a gulag archipelago. I am now too old to wish for anything. I have only hope for my grandchildren.
1. Stop treating an entire segment of the population (black men) like criminals, and the crime rate will fall significantly.
2. If you didn't kill someone during quarantine, you are a saint. (I would like to see stats on how many murders during quarantine were people living in the same house.)
3. People don't want to go to jail but they commit crimes and they go to jail. Unless they are stupid, they will avoid doing that again in their lifetime. Of course, there are many stupid people in the country: some do not live in cities.
4. Any time a person in financial straits is fined for any reason, the stress on that person and their family increases. Bail and excessive fines keep the underclass under foot permanently. It's hard to pull yourself up by the bootstraps when you cannot afford bootstraps.
You speak great truths Kathy. I'm in Chicago and have lived in many major cities in the north and the south. I can tell you as a black man of a certain age, I've been through some seriously scary shit.
There ain't nothing like being a US Marine with 5 other marines being chased by 20 US Army white supremiscists with a rope on an army base we were just deployed to less than an hour previously! That means we had not yet retrieved our weapons. Actually, it may have been best that we were weaponless.
Some cool-ass Seabees stepped in, hid us in their squadbay and dared those KKK guys to come get us. Plenty of weapons then but none were fired and everyone went home safely. That was merely one incident from a lifetime of incidents meant to demean, undermine and cause to fail. And that was after I survived the school-to-prison-pipeline.
I can also tell you that the white folks most prone to say "get over it" or "stop being criminals" or "just comply" or "stop being a victim, it isn't that bad" are people who couldn't take being black for 5 minutes. Were they suddenly made to be black their minds would crack.
Yeah. All that racist style hoopla was an open secret in the USMC too. Official word was: "We are all Mean GREEN Marines" but in reality: "We were all LIGHT green and DARK green Marines!"
Don't get me wrong. I loved being a US Marine about as much as a man could and I also hated it as much as I was able, pretty much like every marine I know. Being a soldier is kind of like being in a really abusive relationship but there's something about the thrill of it, if you know what I... anyway, thank you.
Adam, I was never a marine, but I have had many relatives and friends say: "If I could get the chance, I would kill my D.I." In the next breath they would say: "I love the marine corp." I think I might see it darkly, as through a fog.
I have been an antiwar activist my entire life. But the four most honorable men I have ever known were combat veterans in WWll, Korea and VietNam.
I read your reply and if I understand it, people commit crimes for basically the same reason i.e. I am outside the law. That is, I do not need to do the right thing because A) I am poor and disillusioned by your laws or B) I am wealthy and laws do not apply to me. In the former, laws do not protect the criminal and in the latter, the law protects the criminal. Makes me wanna holler.
Ms. Bolger, may I reply by saying your response is perhaps a little too much over-simplified. But your words just might essentially be it. I did not so much devise this theory as I felt it imposed upon me by the crime data, the empirical evidence. I wandered in the dark for years as I studied criminology. Bogged down by childish and racist biological reductionist theories. I obtained a baccalaureate in psychology and examined too many psychological reductionist theories about criminal behavior which are only slightly less childish than the bio-reductionist ones. I earned an MA and a PhD in sociology and I looked at sociological theories like differential association theory, which was imbedded in symbolic interactionism. I DO accept symbolic interactionism. But reject differential association theory, because it is too obvious, simplistic, and incomplete. It seems like petitio principii to me; what logicians call reasoning in a circle. The conclusion of the syllogism is found in its predicate.
I might adjust what you said a little. Both the poor and the wealthy understand they are NOT "outside the law." They are both alienated in the Marxist sense of the word. They know they are in society, but they do not feel part of it. The poor because of the harm they feel. The wealthy because of the arrogance their exalted position plants in their hearts. If we live in a society wherein neither rich nor poor (or any group) feel as though there is good reason to feel committed to the community; then, they are strongly coaxed toward crime, and suicide.
Each year we have about 1 and 1/2 to two times the number of suicides as we do homicides. Something to think about, long and hard. Some wealthy people also take their own lives. Emile Durkheim called it "anomic suicide." Suicide rates are a phenomenon which DO correlate with unemployment rates, even though crime rates do not. An enigma.
Great reporting—keep it up! It gives hope during dark days, and shines a light on the progress that’s been made. Leave it to the current president to attack the light😡
[I just lost two long thoughtful comments, probably thanks to this AI Summarizing that has distorted the usual process!]
Trump has projected his self-condemnation and lack of worth onto the world around him. Here we have him spewing his negativity onto our largest developments of progress and expression--our major cities. Rebecca Crosby and Noel Simms have given us tremendously examined research in this entire area of the changes to our cash bail system. Without journalism such as Popular Information offers us, we might think we had good reasons to have no confidence in all choices made by our government--that the bizarre disruptions and destruction of our well developed organizations by Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and Russell Vought of Project 2025 are merited! They are very wrong.
Please, give Judd Legum and Popular Information extra support; without them we may not know what we're doing. Spread their words. Make sure our elected officials appreciate these TRUTHS!
This is an excellent article. I hope it is picked up far and wide. I worked for a company that made a lot of money off the captured audience that was the incarcerated. The new industry is the ankle bracelet manufacturing and monitoring. This is better though. At least people are able to continue to earn a living wage instead of be farmed out to corporate hacks at pennies on a dollar.
I am always grateful for your data-informed reports. These deep dives are a pleasure to read and give me hope that the world of policy can return to a better place.
Bail is mostly about making money. If the person is released on bail a bail bondsman makes money. If the person is remanded to jail the prison industry profits. If bail is set higher the bail bondsman makes more money on the bond. If more people are remanded the prison industry profits. Also if people are remanded to jail often the DA can get them to plead guilty to a lesser charge for time served.
If only your pants would ACTUALLY CATCH FIRE when a person lies at the enormous rate that Trump and the GOPers do. There'd be a lot of well-done Smokey Links in. DC.
There have, in fact, been gangs terrorizing the city of Los Angeles. They're called ICE and the LAPD.
So true, and well put.
Where was Trump's concern for the safety of American cities when he released 1600 convicted criminals from prison, many of whom were convicted for violent offenses against police officers?!
So once again, Trump is a liar. Like always.
Shocking if he told the truth.
Every time his lips move.
It is also important to note that in times of high employment (low unemployment), crime rates tend to drop because people are busy working and able to pay their bills. This variable seems to be left out of many analyses of crime rates. Given that, we can anticipate that crime rates will rise again as unemployment rises.
The other stat missing here, is rural crime rates. Sure, cities are interesting to look at, but as a city dweller for decades, I want to know if our conditions make us more murderous, easier to study or actually doing well when compared to our fellow Americans in small towns and suburbs.
Signe K, I taught Criminology and studied the statistics for over four decades. As much as it would seem likely that poverty causes crime: that just is not true. Unemployment is certainly an important issue which deserves our attention. I searched vainly for a long time to find a causal relationship there. But, whatever relationship does exist, it is not that simple. It would be so nice, from an epistemological point of view, if crime rates went up and down in simple correspondence with employment levels. But they do not.
The whole idea of "cause and effect" in the social sciences is fraught with epistemological difficulties. Cause and effect are usually easy to see in physics, chemistry and biology. But there are fields of study in which the relationship is not easy to establish: Weather and meteorological studies, aeronautical engineering, quantum physics, and the social sciences in general, eg. psychology, sociology, anthropology, economics, etc.
First we must be cautious about ignoring the basic elements of crime. Crime is a human act which is prohibited by a legal statute that defines the crime. So it is obvious that crime is created by a legislator [or other legal authority] with a pencil. Before you react against this seemingly silly claim; think about it for a while. Look at Marijuana for example. It was not a crime to traffic in it or use it until 1937 when the Marijuana Tax Act was passed. Then, all those who had been trafficking and using the plant became criminals.
You might object by saying this kind of logic cannot be applied to violent crimes like homicide. But look again. Various branches of government engage in homicide legally. It is euphemistically called punishment, or deterrent. Is the Hangman a criminal?
It took me many years to realize that when a group of people come to the understanding that their community has no commitment to their well being, when that group of people have little or no stake in the community; to that extent, those people have a high probability of feeling no commitment to the laws and norms of the community, and they are more likely to violate those laws and norms. Also, if the social structure provides great opportunities for a person to gain wealth and status by inequitably available paths, if it is also understood that they are not required to be committed to the well being of the community, but can subordinate the community to their own desires, there is again great likelihood that some will use their power to violate the law.
In somewhat oversimplified form, this is the theory of crime which revealed itself from examining statistics on crime, and teaching inferential statistics at the undergraduate level.
You make good points. But look at my comment again. I did not state that the ONLY variables are "busy" and "able to pay." What happens when people are "busy" and "able to pay" is also that they have less time and energy to engage in what may have previously been their income source (ie criminal activities); in addition, they have less stress. Poverty causes stress, and stress causes a variety of negative outcomes, including poor physical and mental health. Indeed, there are a plethora of variables. But I hope you would acknowledge that gainful employment, for some, also adds an element of HOPE for a brighter future in which to be able to control some aspects of their wellbeing, and thus, a lesser likelihood of criminal behavior. There are no simple solutions here; I understand that. Long ago I was a Fulbright Scholar doing independent research on prison education in Denmark, having worked in that industry via high education in the late 70's and early 80's.
Signe K, I do not know how to respond to your complete response to what I said because I do not understand what you are saying when you say: "I did not state that the ONLY variables are 'busy' and 'able to pay.' " I think you are making the epistemological mistake of thinking about variables here. There have been no variables stated or implied. It is a mistake to think in those terms.
In your original comment to This blog you said: " in times of high employment (low unemployment) crime rates tend to drop." After four+ decades of looking at crime statistics, I found too many examples of this being untrue to be able to support such a claim. It just is not true. I think many wish it were true, because that would be an epistemologically elegant theory. But it is a form of wishful thinking. This is what sparked my response to you.
When it comes to crime and punishment in society I might, in a weak moment, wish we could be more like Denmark, or many other countries for that matter. The U.S. has an enormous number of people in its prison system. More than any other country. Which you are no doubt aware of. The 14th amendment in our constitution does not apply to those in prison. This too is conveniently ignored.
I am old enough to remember how for decades the mass media in this country referred frequently to the Russian gulag. Never did I see any reference to the American gulag. We never seemed to have our Solzhenitsyn. The whole thing in the American press was simply part of the anti-USSR hysteria among our elite. The obvious implication was that socialism inevitably brings with it a gulag archipelago. I am now too old to wish for anything. I have only hope for my grandchildren.
1. Stop treating an entire segment of the population (black men) like criminals, and the crime rate will fall significantly.
2. If you didn't kill someone during quarantine, you are a saint. (I would like to see stats on how many murders during quarantine were people living in the same house.)
3. People don't want to go to jail but they commit crimes and they go to jail. Unless they are stupid, they will avoid doing that again in their lifetime. Of course, there are many stupid people in the country: some do not live in cities.
4. Any time a person in financial straits is fined for any reason, the stress on that person and their family increases. Bail and excessive fines keep the underclass under foot permanently. It's hard to pull yourself up by the bootstraps when you cannot afford bootstraps.
You speak great truths Kathy. I'm in Chicago and have lived in many major cities in the north and the south. I can tell you as a black man of a certain age, I've been through some seriously scary shit.
There ain't nothing like being a US Marine with 5 other marines being chased by 20 US Army white supremiscists with a rope on an army base we were just deployed to less than an hour previously! That means we had not yet retrieved our weapons. Actually, it may have been best that we were weaponless.
Some cool-ass Seabees stepped in, hid us in their squadbay and dared those KKK guys to come get us. Plenty of weapons then but none were fired and everyone went home safely. That was merely one incident from a lifetime of incidents meant to demean, undermine and cause to fail. And that was after I survived the school-to-prison-pipeline.
I can also tell you that the white folks most prone to say "get over it" or "stop being criminals" or "just comply" or "stop being a victim, it isn't that bad" are people who couldn't take being black for 5 minutes. Were they suddenly made to be black their minds would crack.
Your USMA story is terrifying; f the crackers and the mule they rode in on.
Yeah. All that racist style hoopla was an open secret in the USMC too. Official word was: "We are all Mean GREEN Marines" but in reality: "We were all LIGHT green and DARK green Marines!"
Don't get me wrong. I loved being a US Marine about as much as a man could and I also hated it as much as I was able, pretty much like every marine I know. Being a soldier is kind of like being in a really abusive relationship but there's something about the thrill of it, if you know what I... anyway, thank you.
Yup.
Adam, I was never a marine, but I have had many relatives and friends say: "If I could get the chance, I would kill my D.I." In the next breath they would say: "I love the marine corp." I think I might see it darkly, as through a fog.
I have been an antiwar activist my entire life. But the four most honorable men I have ever known were combat veterans in WWll, Korea and VietNam.
That's how it is gerald. Like the dychotomy of the classic warrior-monk. It don't make sense till it do. Hahaha!
Adam, Please see my response to Signe K.
Ms. Bolger, regarding your point number (1), please see my response to Signe K.
I read your reply and if I understand it, people commit crimes for basically the same reason i.e. I am outside the law. That is, I do not need to do the right thing because A) I am poor and disillusioned by your laws or B) I am wealthy and laws do not apply to me. In the former, laws do not protect the criminal and in the latter, the law protects the criminal. Makes me wanna holler.
Ms. Bolger, may I reply by saying your response is perhaps a little too much over-simplified. But your words just might essentially be it. I did not so much devise this theory as I felt it imposed upon me by the crime data, the empirical evidence. I wandered in the dark for years as I studied criminology. Bogged down by childish and racist biological reductionist theories. I obtained a baccalaureate in psychology and examined too many psychological reductionist theories about criminal behavior which are only slightly less childish than the bio-reductionist ones. I earned an MA and a PhD in sociology and I looked at sociological theories like differential association theory, which was imbedded in symbolic interactionism. I DO accept symbolic interactionism. But reject differential association theory, because it is too obvious, simplistic, and incomplete. It seems like petitio principii to me; what logicians call reasoning in a circle. The conclusion of the syllogism is found in its predicate.
I might adjust what you said a little. Both the poor and the wealthy understand they are NOT "outside the law." They are both alienated in the Marxist sense of the word. They know they are in society, but they do not feel part of it. The poor because of the harm they feel. The wealthy because of the arrogance their exalted position plants in their hearts. If we live in a society wherein neither rich nor poor (or any group) feel as though there is good reason to feel committed to the community; then, they are strongly coaxed toward crime, and suicide.
Each year we have about 1 and 1/2 to two times the number of suicides as we do homicides. Something to think about, long and hard. Some wealthy people also take their own lives. Emile Durkheim called it "anomic suicide." Suicide rates are a phenomenon which DO correlate with unemployment rates, even though crime rates do not. An enigma.
Great reporting—keep it up! It gives hope during dark days, and shines a light on the progress that’s been made. Leave it to the current president to attack the light😡
[I just lost two long thoughtful comments, probably thanks to this AI Summarizing that has distorted the usual process!]
Trump has projected his self-condemnation and lack of worth onto the world around him. Here we have him spewing his negativity onto our largest developments of progress and expression--our major cities. Rebecca Crosby and Noel Simms have given us tremendously examined research in this entire area of the changes to our cash bail system. Without journalism such as Popular Information offers us, we might think we had good reasons to have no confidence in all choices made by our government--that the bizarre disruptions and destruction of our well developed organizations by Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and Russell Vought of Project 2025 are merited! They are very wrong.
Please, give Judd Legum and Popular Information extra support; without them we may not know what we're doing. Spread their words. Make sure our elected officials appreciate these TRUTHS!
You're right Valerie. Restacking!
This is an excellent article. I hope it is picked up far and wide. I worked for a company that made a lot of money off the captured audience that was the incarcerated. The new industry is the ankle bracelet manufacturing and monitoring. This is better though. At least people are able to continue to earn a living wage instead of be farmed out to corporate hacks at pennies on a dollar.
I am always grateful for your data-informed reports. These deep dives are a pleasure to read and give me hope that the world of policy can return to a better place.
Another shining example of investigative journalism on a topic that is ignored by corp media. This substack is invaluable.
Would like to see data on why crime is down. Baltimore is a great example.
Bail is mostly about making money. If the person is released on bail a bail bondsman makes money. If the person is remanded to jail the prison industry profits. If bail is set higher the bail bondsman makes more money on the bond. If more people are remanded the prison industry profits. Also if people are remanded to jail often the DA can get them to plead guilty to a lesser charge for time served.
mark, there is little doubt that capitalism has turned crime into a legitimate industry in many ways, with many opportunities.
Illinois has eliminated cash bail and a study by Loyola U. Confirms the same thing for the state as a whole.
If only your pants would ACTUALLY CATCH FIRE when a person lies at the enormous rate that Trump and the GOPers do. There'd be a lot of well-done Smokey Links in. DC.
Anything that begins "According to President Trump..." - well, you know what to do with that.
None of this matters. Trump never lets facts get in the way of a good screed.
Or statistics...but the chances are he can't read them.