This is bad. Gambling brings out the worst in us. Like the human desire to dictate unrelated individual outcomes like the roll of a die as part of some mythological Law of Probabilities. How many times have I heard that from friends who gamble? Efficient Market Hypothesis as some bringer of truth by replacing discussion and subjectivity? Very bad. Betting on famine in Gaza? Very bad and disgusting.
Sadly we are hearing this about them. But it has been around for a while. Last yr Nate Silver became an advisor to Polymarket which was a startup operation. Axios reported on it: Exclusive: Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news.
The article also said — “While Polymarket is experiencing a massive engagement spike around the U.S. election, it also sees a fair amount of trade volume around other news stories, Rosenberg said. Last year, the outcome of Sam Altman's fate at OpenAI was a popular prediction trade, he noted.”
This is really frightening, and another indicator that Big Brother is running the game. As a retired mental health counselor, I am also saddened by yet another invitation for gamblers to throw away money, to get hooked (and it's often young males who fall for this) and lose their shirts. Terrible idea all around.
Are we really betting on whether famine will be declared in Gaza, among other life-and-death matters? As someone who follows sports, I'm besieged as it is by ads for betting. If this isn't evidence of a gambling problem, I don't know what is.
This is more dumbing down of society. First, reduce support for education; then simplify news and events; result in pliable people who cannot think on their own; voters easily swayed. Dictatorship!
And when bad things happen to "other" people (they must have been REALLLL bad, made the gods mad) well, "GOOD PEOPLE" can make a little well-earned cash.
Hell, I made a tidy little sum off of them starving kids in Where-Ever-The-Effistan my ownself! Here's how:
This is more than simplifying. This is a great set up for manipulation. Someone drops a ton of money on a company’s stock; the predictors say it is going places & the value jumps up. Mr. Ton of Money cashes out.
Thanks to the constant drumbeat erosion of what is real, by Fox.
Fox began as the brainchild of Roger Ailes, of the Nixon administration.
After Watergate he declared that what was needed was a television station dedicated to only Republican viewpoints. Because 'When people are watching t.v. they don't think.'
Regrettably, billionaires already control the “news” so in some way, this is only more of what we’ve been experiencing for the past 10 (+) years. Global warming? Fake news. Vaccines? Deadlier than the virus. I could go on but why bother?
Exactly! They already control our access to "NEWS' (or 'news product' anyway) and now those same wealth-horders wish to enable further extraction of what little wealth regular folken still have.
We know Kalshi gets advertising and promotion that will give it a veneer of credibility & draws gamblers. What else? What are the news corp getting? The financial arrangements are not disclosed.
I believe this will narrow the scope of coverage even further. Instead of the news that’s ’fit to print’ it will be the news that draws $$.
Thanks for this really great analysis, Judd! Now, can you predict how long before cable and streaming providers require us to pay our bills using crypto?
This reminds me of the 1970s novel Rollerball, which was later made into a movie with Keir Dullea, in which corporations rule the world with an international lethal skater game. It mocks the competition mentality in which winning is everything, no matter who gets hurt. This is our world of profit above all, gambling addiction, and ultimate corruption.
This is bad. Gambling brings out the worst in us. Like the human desire to dictate unrelated individual outcomes like the roll of a die as part of some mythological Law of Probabilities. How many times have I heard that from friends who gamble? Efficient Market Hypothesis as some bringer of truth by replacing discussion and subjectivity? Very bad. Betting on famine in Gaza? Very bad and disgusting.
So long CNN & CNBC. I remember you when.
Sadly we are hearing this about them. But it has been around for a while. Last yr Nate Silver became an advisor to Polymarket which was a startup operation. Axios reported on it: Exclusive: Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news.
The article also said — “While Polymarket is experiencing a massive engagement spike around the U.S. election, it also sees a fair amount of trade volume around other news stories, Rosenberg said. Last year, the outcome of Sam Altman's fate at OpenAI was a popular prediction trade, he noted.”
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket
This is really frightening, and another indicator that Big Brother is running the game. As a retired mental health counselor, I am also saddened by yet another invitation for gamblers to throw away money, to get hooked (and it's often young males who fall for this) and lose their shirts. Terrible idea all around.
WTF Why? Money. Didn’t think supposedly respected (any left?) news organizations were openly grifting. Must be the example of our supposed president.
Standards are falling. That’s how corruption spreads.
Are we really betting on whether famine will be declared in Gaza, among other life-and-death matters? As someone who follows sports, I'm besieged as it is by ads for betting. If this isn't evidence of a gambling problem, I don't know what is.
This is more dumbing down of society. First, reduce support for education; then simplify news and events; result in pliable people who cannot think on their own; voters easily swayed. Dictatorship!
And when bad things happen to "other" people (they must have been REALLLL bad, made the gods mad) well, "GOOD PEOPLE" can make a little well-earned cash.
Hell, I made a tidy little sum off of them starving kids in Where-Ever-The-Effistan my ownself! Here's how:
This is more than simplifying. This is a great set up for manipulation. Someone drops a ton of money on a company’s stock; the predictors say it is going places & the value jumps up. Mr. Ton of Money cashes out.
Hm...
This is ringing some bells.
It was 2003 when former Reagan advisor John Poindexter was caught proposing a stock market based on predicting wars, tragedies and terrorism events.
So people could make money on predicting them. And others by manipulating them....
Here's the Guardian coverage at that time:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/02/usa.julianborger
Poindexter was excoriated by congress and went down in flames.
Thanks for your coverage of this new (news) incarnation and the nauseating example using Gaza.
Maybe CNN will follow up?
22 years it was unacceptable. How times change.
Thanks to the constant drumbeat erosion of what is real, by Fox.
Fox began as the brainchild of Roger Ailes, of the Nixon administration.
After Watergate he declared that what was needed was a television station dedicated to only Republican viewpoints. Because 'When people are watching t.v. they don't think.'
It worked.
Good memory. That's why we need older people around. Especially at the news desk.
Regrettably, billionaires already control the “news” so in some way, this is only more of what we’ve been experiencing for the past 10 (+) years. Global warming? Fake news. Vaccines? Deadlier than the virus. I could go on but why bother?
Exactly! They already control our access to "NEWS' (or 'news product' anyway) and now those same wealth-horders wish to enable further extraction of what little wealth regular folken still have.
We know Kalshi gets advertising and promotion that will give it a veneer of credibility & draws gamblers. What else? What are the news corp getting? The financial arrangements are not disclosed.
I believe this will narrow the scope of coverage even further. Instead of the news that’s ’fit to print’ it will be the news that draws $$.
Precisely. And what draws more dollars than anything? Not the truth if the past is any indicator of the future.
If we want to see this stirred up, let’s be sure these outfits must provide tax winners data to all users an 1099 info to IRS.
That’s not “engaging” with information. Engaging would be taking actual action: calling a senator, aiding disaster victims and so on. Not gambling…
Thanks for this really great analysis, Judd! Now, can you predict how long before cable and streaming providers require us to pay our bills using crypto?
One more reason to pull the plug on cable news.
I'm done with em until they either change or hell freezes over!
I saw this movie called "Idiocracy" once but now I feel like I'm living it.
That's cuz you are. And we're all stuck in here with ya.
This reminds me of the 1970s novel Rollerball, which was later made into a movie with Keir Dullea, in which corporations rule the world with an international lethal skater game. It mocks the competition mentality in which winning is everything, no matter who gets hurt. This is our world of profit above all, gambling addiction, and ultimate corruption.
Kalshi has been spamming Reddit with tasteless advertising. Its presence, even in a cistern of shitposting, is offensive.
Malevolent Autocrats Grifting America