I think what's so galling about Kalshi and Polymarket is that they paint themselves as meritorious when they're really just capitalizing financially on people's real-world exploitation.
Barron and his buddies up late in the dorm? Don Jr and his coked up friends going CRAZEEEE and looking for something wild to do. Any of the grown children of anybody in Twump's orbit.
Do not overlook Hegseth, Patel and the rest of the chancers who have access to intel that they never should have, and the complete lack of ethics that would prevent them from cashing in on the certain deaths of our servicemembers.
There are suck ups everywhere at every age. There are ambitious mothers who are advising their daughters how to entice and seduce the Twump boy, I have no doubt.
This is Internet voting in disguise. I think Trump's people could use it as permission to do things they perceive as "trending" on the market if they interpret people's bets as acceptance of the most popular stance. It really turns betting on its head.
Political polling for a specific group. That’s an interesting thought considering Nate Silver, a guru of political polling, got involved with Polymarket when it was a startup. Axios wrote a short bit about July 2024 and said:
— Silver said he expects more of the investor class to leverage prediction markets to assess the risk of politics on their businesses. —
I wrote this before and I’ll write it again, O for f*cks sake, gambling is gambling. The regulated gambling market in all its forms, from stocks to gaming, encourages and runs on the worst angels of our human nature. That is why it is regulated. This predictions market is especially heinous, sick actually, and should be regulated no differently. At least, and I mean at the very least, the CEO of Kalshi seems to have the briefest ounce of moral fiber when it comes to understanding the effect of his business. This is a start but barely.
Reminds me of legislation around tobacco and vaping...both can lead to wreck and ruin...we legislate against those that won't choose for the greater good so they can have a choice. Huh?
Nothing about human behavior makes sense, does it? We cut off our noses to spite our faces and routinely shoot ourselves in the foot. Gambling with hunches, the mythology of probabilities and insider trading are all ways we lie to ourselves that we have some control.
I should clarify that I refer to marketing laws on tobacco and vaping for children. The prediction markets seem relevant because while it looks like they are "just gambling", in the bigger picture, we're gambling on what those with the finger on the button will do with the lives of innocents.
I was hoping to see a disclaimer from Substack, revealing their involvement in the ownership of the prediction market, Polymarket. It would be the ethical thing to do.
See who's on the board of Polymarket, and it's major investors with this interactive map. Which Trump official has a 91% success rate in betting on Polymarket? Remember Rebekah Mercer of Cambridge Analytica fame?
War Bets: How Donald Trump Jr.’s Polymarket Profited from Iran Strikes
Nate Silver joined Polymarket when it was a startup. That was reported in 2024. Axios wrote: • Silver said he expects more of the investor class to leverage prediction markets to assess the risk of politics on their businesses.
I wonder how this influences his political analysis, speaking engagements, his podcast & the “Silver Bulletin”.
Insider trading is terrible when you can profit from being able to sway the outcome. That's the danger of an analyst dabbling in a prediction market like Polymarket.
Disgusting. Thanks for shining a light on this infection, Judd and team. As is often the case with your reporting, I can't hit the "heart" button because the story is so awful, but I do appreciate your work!
This is the worst thing that can happen! It is the media that gets the lies out to rural areas. It is the media that protects the republicans from all their Constitutional violations, law breaking, illegal wars. This is as dangerous as the orange felon administration itself!
Lay your 💰 down…” $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes” on Polymarket, Bloomberg reported. The White House “denied anyone in Trump’s orbit was behind the lucrative trades.” It’s unclear which members of the administration would be considered “in Trump’s orbit.” Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and its chief rival, Kalshi”
DonJr cashes in on both sites… next bet… how many US soldiers die, aka Lay your body down bet…
But ANY use of these markets as central to reporting is damaging to the quality and credibility of news organizations. It is very disturbing to see the Wall Street Journal, CNN and others making deals with these markets and replacing reporting with promotional spots about the betting markets. As we note here:
"a serious ethical lapse"...
Ya think?
There is no new low, just a wink and a prayer, while hundreds of thousands get blown to bits.
I think what's so galling about Kalshi and Polymarket is that they paint themselves as meritorious when they're really just capitalizing financially on people's real-world exploitation.
Most gamblers are just looking for a miracle. And then there are the addicts, who really need one.
Not to mention Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and its chief rival, Kalshi!! WTF?!?
Barron and his buddies up late in the dorm? Don Jr and his coked up friends going CRAZEEEE and looking for something wild to do. Any of the grown children of anybody in Twump's orbit.
That's my bet.
Do not overlook Hegseth, Patel and the rest of the chancers who have access to intel that they never should have, and the complete lack of ethics that would prevent them from cashing in on the certain deaths of our servicemembers.
Except for the fact that I have a hard time imagining Barron has buddies, I think you are correct.
There are suck ups everywhere at every age. There are ambitious mothers who are advising their daughters how to entice and seduce the Twump boy, I have no doubt.
This is Internet voting in disguise. I think Trump's people could use it as permission to do things they perceive as "trending" on the market if they interpret people's bets as acceptance of the most popular stance. It really turns betting on its head.
Political polling for a specific group. That’s an interesting thought considering Nate Silver, a guru of political polling, got involved with Polymarket when it was a startup. Axios wrote a short bit about July 2024 and said:
— Silver said he expects more of the investor class to leverage prediction markets to assess the risk of politics on their businesses. —
He has his own “Nate Silver predictions & odds”. https://polymarket.com/predictions/nate-silver
I wrote this before and I’ll write it again, O for f*cks sake, gambling is gambling. The regulated gambling market in all its forms, from stocks to gaming, encourages and runs on the worst angels of our human nature. That is why it is regulated. This predictions market is especially heinous, sick actually, and should be regulated no differently. At least, and I mean at the very least, the CEO of Kalshi seems to have the briefest ounce of moral fiber when it comes to understanding the effect of his business. This is a start but barely.
It’s even worse than gambling with the likelihood of insider betting.
Reminds me of legislation around tobacco and vaping...both can lead to wreck and ruin...we legislate against those that won't choose for the greater good so they can have a choice. Huh?
Nothing about human behavior makes sense, does it? We cut off our noses to spite our faces and routinely shoot ourselves in the foot. Gambling with hunches, the mythology of probabilities and insider trading are all ways we lie to ourselves that we have some control.
I should clarify that I refer to marketing laws on tobacco and vaping for children. The prediction markets seem relevant because while it looks like they are "just gambling", in the bigger picture, we're gambling on what those with the finger on the button will do with the lives of innocents.
I believe the word I am looking for is insensate.
What’s sad is… this is all viewed as a game by these argonaut spoiled children!
We have to pay for it? No More!
Judd Your amazing every day…
while Our Country’s news media is absent!
I was hoping to see a disclaimer from Substack, revealing their involvement in the ownership of the prediction market, Polymarket. It would be the ethical thing to do.
Gambling on war: how sick we have become.
See who's on the board of Polymarket, and it's major investors with this interactive map. Which Trump official has a 91% success rate in betting on Polymarket? Remember Rebekah Mercer of Cambridge Analytica fame?
War Bets: How Donald Trump Jr.’s Polymarket Profited from Iran Strikes
https://thedemlabs.org/2026/03/02/polymarket-trump-iran-war-insider-trading/
That woman is everywhere.
Nate Silver joined Polymarket when it was a startup. That was reported in 2024. Axios wrote: • Silver said he expects more of the investor class to leverage prediction markets to assess the risk of politics on their businesses.
I wonder how this influences his political analysis, speaking engagements, his podcast & the “Silver Bulletin”.
https://polymarket.com/predictions/nate-silver
Insider trading is terrible when you can profit from being able to sway the outcome. That's the danger of an analyst dabbling in a prediction market like Polymarket.
Disgusting. Thanks for shining a light on this infection, Judd and team. As is often the case with your reporting, I can't hit the "heart" button because the story is so awful, but I do appreciate your work!
Maybe I'm wrong, but hitting the "heart" button means you support what Judd is reporting on, not that you support the corruption.
This is the worst thing that can happen! It is the media that gets the lies out to rural areas. It is the media that protects the republicans from all their Constitutional violations, law breaking, illegal wars. This is as dangerous as the orange felon administration itself!
Lay your 💰 down…” $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes” on Polymarket, Bloomberg reported. The White House “denied anyone in Trump’s orbit was behind the lucrative trades.” It’s unclear which members of the administration would be considered “in Trump’s orbit.” Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and its chief rival, Kalshi”
DonJr cashes in on both sites… next bet… how many US soldiers die, aka Lay your body down bet…
these "organisms" are defined as human but in a sub sub catagory of severe DNA abberations
If that’s not sociopathy, than I don’t know what is.
This use of these betting markets is grotesque.
But ANY use of these markets as central to reporting is damaging to the quality and credibility of news organizations. It is very disturbing to see the Wall Street Journal, CNN and others making deals with these markets and replacing reporting with promotional spots about the betting markets. As we note here:
https://mediaanddemocracyproject.substack.com/p/gambling-as-journalismshall-we-gamify