The real cost of the Iran War: $72 billion for the first 60 days
Popular Information crunches the numbers. The official accounting is at least $47 billion too low.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Acting Comptroller Jules Hurst told Congress last week that the Iran War had cost $25 billion through the first 60 days. The next day, CBS reported that officials familiar with the Pentagon’s internal assessments estimated the cost was actually closer to $50 billion — double the amount department leadership had just stated publicly. However, even the figure reported as the war’s “true cost” is at least $22 billion too low.
Popular Information conducted a cost estimate of the Iran War based on officials’ statements, military procurement and operations data, and reporting on deployments and armament use. Through 60 days, the US spent an estimated $71.8 billion on the Iran War, or $1.2 billion per day on average. This includes the cost of operations, munitions, combat losses, and arming co-belligerents. Like the estimates from Pentagon leadership and unnamed officials, this figure refers only to direct war costs — near-term expenses for military operations, munitions, and the like — and not indirect costs, which include broader economic impacts, interest on the national debt and longer-term expenses like veterans’ care.
Why this figure is higher than the Pentagon’s internal estimate
Why is Popular Information’s estimate so much largest than even the Pentagon’s internal figure? Factors include incomplete accounting of damaged or destroyed military assets, the exclusion of costs outside the department (including billions of dollars in State Department-funded military aid to Israel), and a flawed method for tracking munition expenditures. The last is likely the biggest factor.
The Pentagon tracks munition “burn rate” costs by merging operational logistics (what munitions are fired, and in what quantities) with financial values (how much each one costs). The issue lies in how the Pentagon determines unit cost. The war costs that show up on the Pentagon’s ledger — and that media outlets report — are much lower than the costs the US public will ultimately be forced to pay.
For example, the largest categorical munition cost is for interceptors, which are missiles designed to shoot down other missiles. The cost to fire one SM-2 interceptor is approximately $1.2 million. If 50 are withdrawn from the stockpile and fired, the Pentagon’s ledger would show $60 million in expenses from consuming those munitions. The $50 billion cost estimate unnamed officials gave lawmakers likely reflects this accounting method, as it’s the department’s standard.
This accounting can lead to undercounts when a rapidly consumed munition like the SM-2 isn’t planned to be purchased in the future. The Pentagon no longer buys SM-2s; the interceptor is being replaced by the more advanced and expensive SM-6. So each time an SM-2 is fired in the ongoing war, the Pentagon’s accounting system registers a cost closer to the SM-2’s $1.2 million unit cost from 2010 than the $6.3 million unit cost budgeted in 2027 for the SM-6 that will replace it. For US taxpayers, the cost of firing 50 SM-2s isn’t $60 million; it’s $315 million.
There are many more examples of expended munitions (or destroyed equipment) that are budgeted to be replaced by much more expensive variants.
Foreseen consequences
The $25 billion war cost given by Pentagon Secretary Hegseth and acting Comptroller Hurst before Congress was a lie. It was a denial of the Iran War’s spiraling costs, one of several foreseen consequences of the Trump administration’s decision to go to war. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is another predictable consequence. As nonproliferation expert Joe Cirincione told Popular Information last June:
There’s a whole list of things [Iran] could do, including closing the Straits of Hormuz. By closing the Straits of Hormuz, you cut off one-fifth of the world’s oil supply overnight. That will send stock markets crashing. That could tip the world into a global recession, even a depression.
This is why no previous president has attacked Iran. There’s a reason for it. It’s not because they weren’t courageous enough. It wasn’t because they didn’t have the capabilities. It’s because they understood that the enemy gets a vote. You could have stunning initial tactical success, and you could still end up in a quagmire with global consequences that will sink you.
Now, in May 2026, the US is in the quagmire phase of its war with Iran. The Trump administration’s plan, based on its 2027 budget request with its record $1.5 trillion in military spending, is to throw money at the problem. It will be up to Congress and its power of the purse to decide whether to enable Trump’s doubling down on another endless war.
A detailed methodology for the $72 billion estimate is available HERE.
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I mean, the $25 billion figure comes from an administration that lies compulsively and from a department in the DoD that has failed eight consecutive audits. Ain't no way it was going to be accurate. It's still alarming, though, that the gulf between what Pop Info has observed and what Hegseth told Congress is more than the amount he's citing itself.
Seventy-two billion dollars in sixty days. One-point-two billion a day.
The Pentagon told Congress twenty-five, then leaked fifty, and the real number is north of seventy. They cannot even keep their own lies aligned for forty-eight hours.
Ask what the money bought….
Dead civilians. A wrecked nonproliferation regime. A region more unstable than when we started. And the slow severing of the United States from the stable trade and security architecture it spent eighty years building, the one thing that ever justified the dollar’s place at the center of the world.
We did not buy a victory. We bought an exit ramp from our own hegemony, at retail.
The kicker is that this is only direct cost. No veterans’ care. No interest on the debt we floated to pay for it. No counting the allies who watched and quietly started pricing other options.
The bill for sixty days will be paid for sixty years.
Johan 🐌
Former foreign service officer