This newsletter is about accountability journalism, not political punditry. But today I do want to share my thinking about the outcome of Tuesday's elections — and the ensuing discourse.
The current state of the media, with so many local news outlets decimated, means that almost all the news we consume these days is national and focused on relatively few media markets. So it might surprise those outside the Greater Cincinnati region to learn that, while the news is filled with "woe is me" stories about Democrats after Tuesday's election, we elected a new city council that is comprised of 8 Democrats and 1 Republican; it's also comprised of 5 African Americans, 4 women, and 1 gay man.
We elected our first Asian-American mayor, also a Democrat, and the first Asian-American to lead a major Midwestern city. While the public school board is non-partisan, all the candidates recommended by the Democratic party won. Five of the seven board members are African-American.
Our newest municipal judge is a Democrat and African-American.
While Ohio continues to trend more reliably Republican (aided in great part by Republican gerrymandering), Hamilton County Ohio - where Cincinnati is located -- has become more reliably Democratic with every election. The same holds true for the counties where all major (and some minor) Ohio cities reside. I've been told that Indianapolis, another blue island in a red sea, is similar.
How different and more nuanced the political climate might be if more reporting dug into the complete picture rather than cherry-picking the races they've already decided will be the national bellweathers for all political prognostication. I don't know about you, but I'd sure like to know what's going right in these places, and whether it can be duplicated elsewhere.
It is immigration. But not the way Democrats think.
My backstory. Back in the day, my mom worked as a seamstress. She immigrated from Mexico legally. She told me seamstress work paid very well ... until sustained illegal immigration caused wages to drop to barely livable levels.
The politicians pushing for amnesty, a lenient asylum policy and no deportations don't have to worry about getting their jobs replaced with the undocumented.
Democrats need to wizen up. The last few years when illegal immigration has spiked is also when Latinos started voting for the GOP in higher numbers. I can't say the massive numbers of migrants attempting to enter the country is the cause but I believe it is.
I voted for Biden to get rid of Trump. Not for Biden's policies. I knew there was going to be a push from the far left for a wide open immigration policy but I'd hoped Biden would hold them back. But he instead embraced them.
He is NOT. BBB is his plan. He has reduced the bill by over a trillion. And please read the piece that was posted on immigration. Again he is not "kow towing" to the far left. You are repeating a GOP created falsehood.
Maybe he didn't padlock the gate, but I have yet to read any story about how Biden "embraced the far left" on immigration. Most of them seem to be pissed that he hasn't opened things up further.
The Red area I live in Is purely ticked about the proposed 450k to be given to illegal immigrants separated from their kids. They rolled out the vote for
So the people around you that are Trump supporters (thus presumably no problem with family separations in the first place) are against doing anything for those families and then voting Republican (which they already do anyway). I'm not seeing the significance.
Biden embraced the far left's position on "no deportations." Biden and the far left have instituted a policy change without having to go to Congress to change the law. "Limited resources" excuse is a lie. ICE has the ability to carry out many thousands more deportations a month than they are allowed to now.
The contests being waged aren’t Democrats vs. Republicans. They aren’t about the past. They aren’t about Biden’s poll numbers. The pundit analyses about what went wrong are, themselves, mostly wrong. These political contests are between a Trumpian, autocratic future and our democracy. What Trump, his acolytes and cultists have done far, far better than the Dems is having a unified message, no matter how vile. In the meantime, Democratic infighting is keeping from passage a unifying bill to rethink America. If the bill had passed two months ago, things would be different. As it is, the Dems look incapable of leading the country. People want simple. The messy, egocentric and power wielding arrogance of different factions and individuals is not helping. One other thing might also help: speed up the insurrection cases so that the January 6 folks, including congressmen and women, the former president and his cronies are all put in jail.
"Democratic infighting is keeping from passage a unifying bill". Yes and no. Manchin isn't a democrat. He may run as a moderate dem but he is a conservative capitalist at the end of the day. Democrats need to stop electing flip-floppers and moderates to seats that allow them control of the country. He is one person defying the voice of the nation that has elected a democratic government because we want this country to progress and to be a place for human beings to thrive. His allegiance to fossil fuels and profit will always outweigh his responsibility to the post he was elected.
Basic civics and simple math. There are 100 Senators, not 50 and every one of those Senators get a vote on the bill. It is not one Senator who is holding up the bill. It is 51 Senators. The voice of the nation did not elect a "Democratic government," it elected a tied Senate. If it were only Manchin who was holding up the bill, the vote would be 99-1 and the bill would pass.
This is exactly right and what we should say wherever we can as frequently as possible, and each time we should discuss how we got here. Are we a country divided along an imaginary or real line? Has the electoral college run its course as currently defined? Along with slanted views, much outright lying occurs in the media our citizens enable through subscriptions and advertiser support? The list goes on. Somehow as a citizenry we need to reach some level of understanding about how we got here because that’s the only way we get out of this debacle. Oh, and the pundits shouldn’t be allowed to drive the conversation.
Again, basic civics and simple math. This country has a rural/urban divide. If everything were decided based on popular vote alone, then the election would be decided by California and New York and the other large cities, most of which vote Democrat. You think we have a rural/urban divide and talk of secession now, it would be even worse under that scenario. The founders wisely recognized this and established the Senate and the electoral college to ensure that the less populous states would still be fairly represented.
Most people aren't paying any attention to the pundits. They are paying attention to their lives. And, right now, their lives are turned upside down when Biden and the Democrats promised to make thing right. All Biden had to do to be elected was to be not Trump. All he had to do as president was be boring and normal. Instead we got a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Delta variant, rapidly-rising inflation, and warnings that we might not be able to buy our Christmas presents because the ports are shut down and there aren't enough truckers. Not all Biden's fault, but he way over-promised. In the meantime, the Democrats in Congress are tone-deaf as they are locked in a murder-suicide plot thus blocking an extremely popular bi-partisan bill to try to force passage of a bloated unpopular spending spree that depends on an unconstitutional and unenforceable tax on 700 people to pay for it.
Let you think I am a Republican, I am a life-long liberal Democrat voter who is sick to death of the progressives and Democrats. I am now politically homeless, but if the Republicans find their way, I will probably vote Republican in the future. If I had been in Virginia, I would have voted for Youngkin.
"Unpopular spending spree." Actually the social spending in the reconciliation bill is extremely popular and very much needed for working class people.
I appreciate the facts and agree with many points including the over-promise, and disagree with others such as the wise decision of the founders - if we stuck with those tenets only, you and I (for example) would be subservient to husbands, fathers, brothers or sons. I hear pundits but don’t listen to them. I’m neither R or D, and have been registered I for years. My politics have changed a lot in the 40 years I’ve been voting and I expect they’ll change more as I fully retire. Right now, my focus is on lies. Everyone lies, but some politicians lie intentionally, openly and with enthusiasm about dangerous things, and our 24/7 access to “news” worsens the impact. Trump didn’t start it, but he set the new standard. I’m sick to death of it. My opposition to lying is stronger than any other factor, good or bad. Sadly in politics I’m forced to find the politicians that tell the least worst lies. As of now, it’s the D party, warts and all. I have no idea what I’ll think about politics in 2024, but I know I won’t be regretting that I voted for Biden over Trump in 2020.
You say its an extremely popular bi-partisan bill and earlier you say its not Joe Manchin holding it up, its 51 Senators. It can't be both. I think what you are missing is the fact that basically 50 Republicans have no intention of passing anything that will help our country, not when a Democrat is in the White House and Joe Manchin has a financial interest to not do anything.
Christmas will not be canceled. That is Republican and MSM hyperbole and scare tactics.
And vote Republican if you think that is best but I find it strange for somebody to vote for a party that has already tried to cancel people's vote.
There are two bills. The popular infrastructure bill has passed the Senate with 67 votes. The progressives in the House have vowed not to pass the infrastructure bill until the Build Back Better bill is passed. Joe Manchin will vote for the infrastructure bill, but will not vote for the BBB bill in its present form. (I do not think he should vote for it at all).
I did not say I would vote for the Republican party until it has found its way back. I would have voted for Youngkin who did not embrace Trump and who, by the way, does not contest the 2020 election. I believe he may be the start of finding their way back.
I stopped listening to the echo chamber and started reading articles and columns by both liberal and conservative authors. The progressives scare the heck out of me, at least as much if not more than the MAGA crowd.
I find it strange to vote for a party that doesn't understand basic math; that is racist in the name of anti-racism, is sexist in its attempts to cancel women in favor of biological men, and squelches free speech in the name of free speech. 1984 was about communists, not capitalists.
Oh, and by the way, the top 1% pays more than 40% of all income taxes. The bottom 50% pays less than 3% of all income taxes.
I don't even know what that means. It's bad when Republicans vote along party lines and it's also bad when Manchin, a Democrat, won't vote along with the party?
Or he is a Democrat from a red state who is enabling the Democrats to control the Senate (with the vice-president's vote), rather than allowing the seat to be held by a Republican. He needs to represent his constituents in order to remain in office. Or the Democrats could primary him and lose the seat to a Republican.
I appreciate your comments, Caleb. To me, the two huge difference in the parties are 1) The Trump Opposition Party (TOP) knows how to wield power and the Dems don’t and 2) The Dems are trying to make positive changes and the TOPs are trying to suppress voting, keep power and further empower statism.
Another great column, Judd. I love your examples of the press forecasting election gloom and doom that then faded with time. Thank you for doing all you do to hold corporations and government accountable.
Democrats need to speak of what they are doing for people. A positive message goes a lot farther than a negative message about Trump. There is not enough positive marketing of what Democrats want to do and explain how it is going to help people. Then, they have to do it!
There is a ton of positive messages about democratic plans. The issue is that the other party only cares about doing the opposite of whatever anyone else wants and yelling as loud as they can all the time to drown out anything else. It's exhausting but that is the intent. To wear everyone down to the point that noone cares anymore, or there will be another civil war. They don't care, they're allowed to lie and feed the flames with no real risk or punishment for their part. We are seeing them walk away from responsibility daily. Mo Brooks denies involvement then says he is "proud" of any of his staff that may have helped. This is a joke to them. Our country and our judicial system is the real joke.
Yes, there may be, but they are not promoted like the lies. Joe Biden refuted the Fox News Lie of Doocy's question about $450,000 paid to each immigrant. When lies are promoted as general news, leadership and candidates need to refute it and state what is being done. There is too much hesitancy in the Democrats to actually come out and state what they know is correct and needs to be done. Then, stand the Republican heat and remain steadfast to truth rather than debate the lie.
Candidates need to promote their independence. Too much money in politics for the candidate and not enough for the Party to perform its duty in support of the candidate. A big promise made by Trump about "draining the swamp" was welcomed by many, but he couldn't drain anything since he was one of the ones benefiting from the swamp. The Democrats, however, can develop a strategy that only accepts limited support for individuals but unlimited support for the Party. Something has to be done to appeal to honesty and integrity in the American Voter. I believe they want it, but don't know how to get it.
Same with positive messages. They want positivity, but don't hear enough of it and find the simplest message the most appealing. Democrat candidates have to make simple, straight-forward messages of what will be good for the voters, and then the Party has to pay for advertising that promotes these messages all over the country.
Well it's likely to be the next state to try to outlaw abortions, along w/ reversing the modest legislative advances made there in the recently past term.
It was clear early on that the Democrats would loose in Virginia. Youngkin brought energy to his campaign. Yes, he distorted and in some cases lied, but the average voter is not a political savant. Between balancing their jobs, home, the kids, and all the noise of daily living, they look at the broad picture. An in Virginia the broad picture was a younger energetic man who campaigned like he wanted the job. McAuliffe came off as an old hat, more of the same, tired politician out of touch with average people. Until Democrats can campaign on a short, direct message with energy and enthusiasm, they will continue to loose elections. They need to act like they are proud of what they have accomplished in the past, and passionately believe in their vision for the future.
Progressives in my state and CD did about as well as they always do. There was a surge of novice candidates supported by the local GOP who ran for local town councils and school boards on the fake threat of critical race theory and various vaccine and mask conspiracies. Except for a couple of communities about 30 miles due east (North Idaho), they were soundly rejected by the voters, who seem, thank God, to still value competence over Tucker Carlson or Trump endorsements. The thing that struck me most as a big change in my community was the tripling of campaign contributions from PACs outside of my community. It was three to four times the last election for a couple of city council seats. One wonders why David Koch gives a damn about who sits of the Spokane City Council; but judging from the campaign reports, he does. This infusion of national money, particularly dollars coming from unaccountable PACs, not parties, is new and troubling in my community. Yet even there, one of the two candidates receiving this dark money still lost, so..... I wish that the Build Back Better agenda of Joe Biden had included a rebuild for our election system, one that included legislation to negate the Supremes' Citizen United decision, as well as the much discussed voter protections. All this anonymous money coming into my community is what I noticed most about this election.
Even in the more trusted segments of the media what seems to drive the reporting of news is not information but shiny objects that will capture the attention of readers and bring them back. The elections just held were about far more than Virginia, but to look at headlines one would be hard pressed to see that. Local issues were voted on, mayors of color were elected, women were elected, and so on. And, as this article notes, reality is not static. A year from now it is possible that no race decided yesterday would turn out the same way if the election was held again.
Thanks for an informed/historical observation about how those who prognosticate are often incorrect. Your point about change is key and frankly, I'm so over polling. For the most part, I've stopped reading "opinion" pieces. They often create anxiety with a great deal of doom and gloom. Bottom line - we will need to do the work in every upcoming election to see that competent and value-driven candidates are elected. There were MANY wins yesterday at the local level that are exciting. Let's just do the work and see what happens.
I live in Maryland, in the DC area, and the evening TV shows were blitzed by ads from Youngkin, starting in June. They were sparkling, bright and showed a handsome, energetic man.
In contrast, the much fewer Macauliffe ads were dull, the perspective photos of Macauliffe showed a much older and tired looking man, not very good looking. I don't know what ad agency Macauliffe used, but it must have been staffed with Youngkin supporters, because the ads were not well written and did not show Macauliffe off very well.
In fact, I was surprised when I saw recent photos of Macaulffe; he looked younger and more virile than in his ads.
No one has talked about Macauliffe's campaign, but I don't think he did a good job.
I don't think your tale of Donald Trump being elected is exactly true. He never was elected by the people of this country. He was given the presidency by a body of individuals that should not exist in a democracy. The majority did not elect him. That is all that should matter.
As Rachel Bitcofer like to remind us, it’s all about turnout. Polls are very bad at predicting who will actually vote. Punditry based on non presidential years with low voter turnout should keep this fact in mind.
I was upset 20 years ago when 19 corporations owned 95% of the TV and raio stations, magazines and newspapers. Now that has consolidated to 5. The next time someone wants to differ with you, ask them to say something that they didn't hear on TV or the internet. Local working class organization has almost disappeared along with newspapers like the PTA, the Church, local unions and even in recreation activities like bowling where the leagues have faded away.
50 years ago, there was a pamphlet that came out of France called "The Society of the Spectacle." It's contention was that we had become divorced from nature and that everything that we view is a facsimile. Rather than living in natural time cycles, we live in spectacular time, geared to social and economic regulation. Money, becomes capital becomes spectacle. Spectacle becomes commodity which is presented as reality when it is a represntation. We are observers of the spectacle and not participants. We consume the spectacle presented to us as commodity and natural life becomes suppordinate to the artificial. The spectacle becomes all consuming as it determines social, political and economic dialogue. The virtual reality wi9thin which we are having this dialogue.is itself a part of the spectacle.
Zuckerberg recently presented us with the ultimate evolution of this concept in the meta universe where every one will live in a virtual reality within a virtual shopping center of spectacle as commodity subject to the manipulation of the owner. Has that not been the partial achievement of the 24 hour news cycle tracking politics as a game or race or media outlets like Twitter, selling us / determining our prefered reality?
It is like pulling teeth to get people to vote in local elections. Maybe 20% will participate in municiple elections and even less for school boards, parks, libraries and the like. And yet, these are the institutions that have the most direct impact on personal lives. These do not get cable coverage and yet the right has concentrated their efforts on capturing these offices over the past forty years while attacking the unions, mainstream denominations and now the deomcratic institutions of our Constitution. The Dems have done well in the cities but ignored rural America and made some inroads into the suburbs. The R's are working the tribal angle and have media sponsorhip of those ideas.
The I am running a grassroots electoral campaign, I know that the R's will be at the ballot box no matter what. It is their tribal culture. I pray for a warm, sunny day. Here where it's cold, the local and primary elections are held when it's cold. Try to get volunteers to go door to door in January and February after the nominating petiions were due December 15. Not so easy if you don't know your neighbors. Even harder if you've been in front of a screen for most of you shrinking leasure time rather than engaging in human interaction.
All change comes from the bottom up, with you. I tell my students to go home, turn off the TV and tell the people that they live with that they love them. Learn to live independent of the media and internet for a certain period every day when you interact with those that you love. Make the journey within as well as without. Get to know your neighbors. Interact with them. Saul Alinsky started most community organizing with a stop sign at a busy corner using actors in existing local institutions and went from there.
With your friends and neighbors, pick out your stop sign and get started in this reality. You'll meet the active R's in your town when you do because that is already their reality. If your persistant, you may get someplace in electing like minded people to office. Then you can work on the procedural rules of access to the power to determine substantive rules which is how the pie is divided. Then, you are interacting in this reality and the spectacle can be seen for what it is.
You speak the same message as Timothy Snyder and I agree local is where you want to be. We are lucky where I live, we still have a local newspaper but not sure how long it will survive as it isn’t perfect and surprisingly, lots of people, liberal Dems and Repubs dis it (for different reasons).
I think Michael Moore's film Capitalism a Love Story, contained the interview of
Stephen Moore, wealthy Repub with years in the Heritage Foundation, Cato Institute, Club for Growth and Wall Street Journal editorial board. In that interview Stephen M. said,
“Capitalism is a lot more important than democracy....I’m not even a big believer in democracy."
While 'capitalism' is never mentioned in the Constitution which talks a lot about democracy, people in the U.S. now grow up in the reverse frame. The U.S. also sports an extreme version of capitalism, much more regressive, primitive and sensational than in most countries.
When I need a refresher on what democracy is based on, I reread K.E. Boulding, late president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He devoted his 1980 A.A.A.S. presidential address to the historical and ethical bases shared by the subcultures of both science and democracy. They both had to crawl out from under the very dangerous heels of king and church -- traditional definers of outer reality.
Underlying values of democracy (and science):
1 -- veracity. Trying to tell the truth as best we can.
2 -- strong individualism. Versus stereotyping.
3 -- commitment to testing (of assumptions). To balance all the individualism.
4 -- curiosity. Not really a popular value. "Curiosity killed the cat."
5 -- rejection of the use of threat to change minds.
Pretty handy reminders.
(Boulding's full presidential address is reprinted in Science, Feb. 1980).
Just as generals always seem to fight the last war, political consultants, political pundits and politicians seem to run the last election. Time for a new approach.
I hope that your optimism is justified. I live in NJ and was horrified by Governor Murphy's narrow escape. All of the polls had him winning by at least eight points. National Republicans pretty much ignored the state. The fact that it was so close should alarm Democrats everywhere. And, of course, true to their new playbook, the Republicans are screaming "voter fraud" and are promising litigation. Because, you know, the other side can ONLY win if it cheats...........
The current state of the media, with so many local news outlets decimated, means that almost all the news we consume these days is national and focused on relatively few media markets. So it might surprise those outside the Greater Cincinnati region to learn that, while the news is filled with "woe is me" stories about Democrats after Tuesday's election, we elected a new city council that is comprised of 8 Democrats and 1 Republican; it's also comprised of 5 African Americans, 4 women, and 1 gay man.
We elected our first Asian-American mayor, also a Democrat, and the first Asian-American to lead a major Midwestern city. While the public school board is non-partisan, all the candidates recommended by the Democratic party won. Five of the seven board members are African-American.
Our newest municipal judge is a Democrat and African-American.
While Ohio continues to trend more reliably Republican (aided in great part by Republican gerrymandering), Hamilton County Ohio - where Cincinnati is located -- has become more reliably Democratic with every election. The same holds true for the counties where all major (and some minor) Ohio cities reside. I've been told that Indianapolis, another blue island in a red sea, is similar.
How different and more nuanced the political climate might be if more reporting dug into the complete picture rather than cherry-picking the races they've already decided will be the national bellweathers for all political prognostication. I don't know about you, but I'd sure like to know what's going right in these places, and whether it can be duplicated elsewhere.
Great point about our loss of local news outlets. And hooray for Cincinnati! Thanks for reporting this here.
The opposite is true in the deep blue Border Region of Texas. A Latino flipped a long-held Democrat state seat to the GOP.
There is a reddening of the border region that started with Trump and looks to be continuing. Democrats really need to reflect on why it is happening.
It may be abortion? Other social issues that Dems support? Could be immigration, actually. I hope Dems will look into this. Thank you, Boo.
It is immigration. But not the way Democrats think.
My backstory. Back in the day, my mom worked as a seamstress. She immigrated from Mexico legally. She told me seamstress work paid very well ... until sustained illegal immigration caused wages to drop to barely livable levels.
The politicians pushing for amnesty, a lenient asylum policy and no deportations don't have to worry about getting their jobs replaced with the undocumented.
Democrats need to wizen up. The last few years when illegal immigration has spiked is also when Latinos started voting for the GOP in higher numbers. I can't say the massive numbers of migrants attempting to enter the country is the cause but I believe it is.
I voted for Biden to get rid of Trump. Not for Biden's policies. I knew there was going to be a push from the far left for a wide open immigration policy but I'd hoped Biden would hold them back. But he instead embraced them.
That’s incorrect. He did not embrace the far left. We beat them in the primary.
Exactly. Why is he kow towing to the far left's demands on immigration and social spending?
He is NOT. BBB is his plan. He has reduced the bill by over a trillion. And please read the piece that was posted on immigration. Again he is not "kow towing" to the far left. You are repeating a GOP created falsehood.
Maybe he didn't padlock the gate, but I have yet to read any story about how Biden "embraced the far left" on immigration. Most of them seem to be pissed that he hasn't opened things up further.
The Red area I live in Is purely ticked about the proposed 450k to be given to illegal immigrants separated from their kids. They rolled out the vote for
Republicans.
I live in VA.
So the people around you that are Trump supporters (thus presumably no problem with family separations in the first place) are against doing anything for those families and then voting Republican (which they already do anyway). I'm not seeing the significance.
Biden embraced the far left's position on "no deportations." Biden and the far left have instituted a policy change without having to go to Congress to change the law. "Limited resources" excuse is a lie. ICE has the ability to carry out many thousands more deportations a month than they are allowed to now.
This stuff is just SO difficult to find:
https://www.vera.org/blog/the-biden-administration-is-trying-to-speed-up-deportations
If you liked Trumps white nationalism so much perhaps you should have voted for him.
That’s not true. He has deported many.
I was going comment that Tuesday was NOT bad for most Democratic candidates. otherwise good piece by Judd.
The contests being waged aren’t Democrats vs. Republicans. They aren’t about the past. They aren’t about Biden’s poll numbers. The pundit analyses about what went wrong are, themselves, mostly wrong. These political contests are between a Trumpian, autocratic future and our democracy. What Trump, his acolytes and cultists have done far, far better than the Dems is having a unified message, no matter how vile. In the meantime, Democratic infighting is keeping from passage a unifying bill to rethink America. If the bill had passed two months ago, things would be different. As it is, the Dems look incapable of leading the country. People want simple. The messy, egocentric and power wielding arrogance of different factions and individuals is not helping. One other thing might also help: speed up the insurrection cases so that the January 6 folks, including congressmen and women, the former president and his cronies are all put in jail.
"Democratic infighting is keeping from passage a unifying bill". Yes and no. Manchin isn't a democrat. He may run as a moderate dem but he is a conservative capitalist at the end of the day. Democrats need to stop electing flip-floppers and moderates to seats that allow them control of the country. He is one person defying the voice of the nation that has elected a democratic government because we want this country to progress and to be a place for human beings to thrive. His allegiance to fossil fuels and profit will always outweigh his responsibility to the post he was elected.
Basic civics and simple math. There are 100 Senators, not 50 and every one of those Senators get a vote on the bill. It is not one Senator who is holding up the bill. It is 51 Senators. The voice of the nation did not elect a "Democratic government," it elected a tied Senate. If it were only Manchin who was holding up the bill, the vote would be 99-1 and the bill would pass.
This is exactly right and what we should say wherever we can as frequently as possible, and each time we should discuss how we got here. Are we a country divided along an imaginary or real line? Has the electoral college run its course as currently defined? Along with slanted views, much outright lying occurs in the media our citizens enable through subscriptions and advertiser support? The list goes on. Somehow as a citizenry we need to reach some level of understanding about how we got here because that’s the only way we get out of this debacle. Oh, and the pundits shouldn’t be allowed to drive the conversation.
Again, basic civics and simple math. This country has a rural/urban divide. If everything were decided based on popular vote alone, then the election would be decided by California and New York and the other large cities, most of which vote Democrat. You think we have a rural/urban divide and talk of secession now, it would be even worse under that scenario. The founders wisely recognized this and established the Senate and the electoral college to ensure that the less populous states would still be fairly represented.
Most people aren't paying any attention to the pundits. They are paying attention to their lives. And, right now, their lives are turned upside down when Biden and the Democrats promised to make thing right. All Biden had to do to be elected was to be not Trump. All he had to do as president was be boring and normal. Instead we got a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Delta variant, rapidly-rising inflation, and warnings that we might not be able to buy our Christmas presents because the ports are shut down and there aren't enough truckers. Not all Biden's fault, but he way over-promised. In the meantime, the Democrats in Congress are tone-deaf as they are locked in a murder-suicide plot thus blocking an extremely popular bi-partisan bill to try to force passage of a bloated unpopular spending spree that depends on an unconstitutional and unenforceable tax on 700 people to pay for it.
Let you think I am a Republican, I am a life-long liberal Democrat voter who is sick to death of the progressives and Democrats. I am now politically homeless, but if the Republicans find their way, I will probably vote Republican in the future. If I had been in Virginia, I would have voted for Youngkin.
"Unpopular spending spree." Actually the social spending in the reconciliation bill is extremely popular and very much needed for working class people.
I appreciate the facts and agree with many points including the over-promise, and disagree with others such as the wise decision of the founders - if we stuck with those tenets only, you and I (for example) would be subservient to husbands, fathers, brothers or sons. I hear pundits but don’t listen to them. I’m neither R or D, and have been registered I for years. My politics have changed a lot in the 40 years I’ve been voting and I expect they’ll change more as I fully retire. Right now, my focus is on lies. Everyone lies, but some politicians lie intentionally, openly and with enthusiasm about dangerous things, and our 24/7 access to “news” worsens the impact. Trump didn’t start it, but he set the new standard. I’m sick to death of it. My opposition to lying is stronger than any other factor, good or bad. Sadly in politics I’m forced to find the politicians that tell the least worst lies. As of now, it’s the D party, warts and all. I have no idea what I’ll think about politics in 2024, but I know I won’t be regretting that I voted for Biden over Trump in 2020.
You say its an extremely popular bi-partisan bill and earlier you say its not Joe Manchin holding it up, its 51 Senators. It can't be both. I think what you are missing is the fact that basically 50 Republicans have no intention of passing anything that will help our country, not when a Democrat is in the White House and Joe Manchin has a financial interest to not do anything.
Christmas will not be canceled. That is Republican and MSM hyperbole and scare tactics.
And vote Republican if you think that is best but I find it strange for somebody to vote for a party that has already tried to cancel people's vote.
There are two bills. The popular infrastructure bill has passed the Senate with 67 votes. The progressives in the House have vowed not to pass the infrastructure bill until the Build Back Better bill is passed. Joe Manchin will vote for the infrastructure bill, but will not vote for the BBB bill in its present form. (I do not think he should vote for it at all).
I did not say I would vote for the Republican party until it has found its way back. I would have voted for Youngkin who did not embrace Trump and who, by the way, does not contest the 2020 election. I believe he may be the start of finding their way back.
I stopped listening to the echo chamber and started reading articles and columns by both liberal and conservative authors. The progressives scare the heck out of me, at least as much if not more than the MAGA crowd.
I find it strange to vote for a party that doesn't understand basic math; that is racist in the name of anti-racism, is sexist in its attempts to cancel women in favor of biological men, and squelches free speech in the name of free speech. 1984 was about communists, not capitalists.
Oh, and by the way, the top 1% pays more than 40% of all income taxes. The bottom 50% pays less than 3% of all income taxes.
my goodness thats short sighted. And you include a lot of GOP talking points for a "liberal Democrat"
Except that the Republicans vote along party lines on the majority of issues, unless they are listening to their conscience
I don't even know what that means. It's bad when Republicans vote along party lines and it's also bad when Manchin, a Democrat, won't vote along with the party?
Math is math!
It seems to me that actually Manchin is a Republican who infiltrated the Democratic party to continue to feather his own nest.
Or he is a Democrat from a red state who is enabling the Democrats to control the Senate (with the vice-president's vote), rather than allowing the seat to be held by a Republican. He needs to represent his constituents in order to remain in office. Or the Democrats could primary him and lose the seat to a Republican.
no hes a life long conservative Dem who has become more conservative due to his state become extremely red...
I appreciate your comments, Caleb. To me, the two huge difference in the parties are 1) The Trump Opposition Party (TOP) knows how to wield power and the Dems don’t and 2) The Dems are trying to make positive changes and the TOPs are trying to suppress voting, keep power and further empower statism.
Another great column, Judd. I love your examples of the press forecasting election gloom and doom that then faded with time. Thank you for doing all you do to hold corporations and government accountable.
Democrats need to speak of what they are doing for people. A positive message goes a lot farther than a negative message about Trump. There is not enough positive marketing of what Democrats want to do and explain how it is going to help people. Then, they have to do it!
There is a ton of positive messages about democratic plans. The issue is that the other party only cares about doing the opposite of whatever anyone else wants and yelling as loud as they can all the time to drown out anything else. It's exhausting but that is the intent. To wear everyone down to the point that noone cares anymore, or there will be another civil war. They don't care, they're allowed to lie and feed the flames with no real risk or punishment for their part. We are seeing them walk away from responsibility daily. Mo Brooks denies involvement then says he is "proud" of any of his staff that may have helped. This is a joke to them. Our country and our judicial system is the real joke.
Yes, there may be, but they are not promoted like the lies. Joe Biden refuted the Fox News Lie of Doocy's question about $450,000 paid to each immigrant. When lies are promoted as general news, leadership and candidates need to refute it and state what is being done. There is too much hesitancy in the Democrats to actually come out and state what they know is correct and needs to be done. Then, stand the Republican heat and remain steadfast to truth rather than debate the lie.
Candidates need to promote their independence. Too much money in politics for the candidate and not enough for the Party to perform its duty in support of the candidate. A big promise made by Trump about "draining the swamp" was welcomed by many, but he couldn't drain anything since he was one of the ones benefiting from the swamp. The Democrats, however, can develop a strategy that only accepts limited support for individuals but unlimited support for the Party. Something has to be done to appeal to honesty and integrity in the American Voter. I believe they want it, but don't know how to get it.
Same with positive messages. They want positivity, but don't hear enough of it and find the simplest message the most appealing. Democrat candidates have to make simple, straight-forward messages of what will be good for the voters, and then the Party has to pay for advertising that promotes these messages all over the country.
I'm sure Virginians will be sorry in the next few years.
Well it's likely to be the next state to try to outlaw abortions, along w/ reversing the modest legislative advances made there in the recently past term.
It was clear early on that the Democrats would loose in Virginia. Youngkin brought energy to his campaign. Yes, he distorted and in some cases lied, but the average voter is not a political savant. Between balancing their jobs, home, the kids, and all the noise of daily living, they look at the broad picture. An in Virginia the broad picture was a younger energetic man who campaigned like he wanted the job. McAuliffe came off as an old hat, more of the same, tired politician out of touch with average people. Until Democrats can campaign on a short, direct message with energy and enthusiasm, they will continue to loose elections. They need to act like they are proud of what they have accomplished in the past, and passionately believe in their vision for the future.
Progressives in my state and CD did about as well as they always do. There was a surge of novice candidates supported by the local GOP who ran for local town councils and school boards on the fake threat of critical race theory and various vaccine and mask conspiracies. Except for a couple of communities about 30 miles due east (North Idaho), they were soundly rejected by the voters, who seem, thank God, to still value competence over Tucker Carlson or Trump endorsements. The thing that struck me most as a big change in my community was the tripling of campaign contributions from PACs outside of my community. It was three to four times the last election for a couple of city council seats. One wonders why David Koch gives a damn about who sits of the Spokane City Council; but judging from the campaign reports, he does. This infusion of national money, particularly dollars coming from unaccountable PACs, not parties, is new and troubling in my community. Yet even there, one of the two candidates receiving this dark money still lost, so..... I wish that the Build Back Better agenda of Joe Biden had included a rebuild for our election system, one that included legislation to negate the Supremes' Citizen United decision, as well as the much discussed voter protections. All this anonymous money coming into my community is what I noticed most about this election.
Even in the more trusted segments of the media what seems to drive the reporting of news is not information but shiny objects that will capture the attention of readers and bring them back. The elections just held were about far more than Virginia, but to look at headlines one would be hard pressed to see that. Local issues were voted on, mayors of color were elected, women were elected, and so on. And, as this article notes, reality is not static. A year from now it is possible that no race decided yesterday would turn out the same way if the election was held again.
Thanks for an informed/historical observation about how those who prognosticate are often incorrect. Your point about change is key and frankly, I'm so over polling. For the most part, I've stopped reading "opinion" pieces. They often create anxiety with a great deal of doom and gloom. Bottom line - we will need to do the work in every upcoming election to see that competent and value-driven candidates are elected. There were MANY wins yesterday at the local level that are exciting. Let's just do the work and see what happens.
I live in Maryland, in the DC area, and the evening TV shows were blitzed by ads from Youngkin, starting in June. They were sparkling, bright and showed a handsome, energetic man.
In contrast, the much fewer Macauliffe ads were dull, the perspective photos of Macauliffe showed a much older and tired looking man, not very good looking. I don't know what ad agency Macauliffe used, but it must have been staffed with Youngkin supporters, because the ads were not well written and did not show Macauliffe off very well.
In fact, I was surprised when I saw recent photos of Macaulffe; he looked younger and more virile than in his ads.
No one has talked about Macauliffe's campaign, but I don't think he did a good job.
I should have counted the number of emails I got requesting donations for McAuliffe’s campaign (huge amount) and I live in Minnesota
I don't think your tale of Donald Trump being elected is exactly true. He never was elected by the people of this country. He was given the presidency by a body of individuals that should not exist in a democracy. The majority did not elect him. That is all that should matter.
As Rachel Bitcofer like to remind us, it’s all about turnout. Polls are very bad at predicting who will actually vote. Punditry based on non presidential years with low voter turnout should keep this fact in mind.
I was upset 20 years ago when 19 corporations owned 95% of the TV and raio stations, magazines and newspapers. Now that has consolidated to 5. The next time someone wants to differ with you, ask them to say something that they didn't hear on TV or the internet. Local working class organization has almost disappeared along with newspapers like the PTA, the Church, local unions and even in recreation activities like bowling where the leagues have faded away.
50 years ago, there was a pamphlet that came out of France called "The Society of the Spectacle." It's contention was that we had become divorced from nature and that everything that we view is a facsimile. Rather than living in natural time cycles, we live in spectacular time, geared to social and economic regulation. Money, becomes capital becomes spectacle. Spectacle becomes commodity which is presented as reality when it is a represntation. We are observers of the spectacle and not participants. We consume the spectacle presented to us as commodity and natural life becomes suppordinate to the artificial. The spectacle becomes all consuming as it determines social, political and economic dialogue. The virtual reality wi9thin which we are having this dialogue.is itself a part of the spectacle.
Zuckerberg recently presented us with the ultimate evolution of this concept in the meta universe where every one will live in a virtual reality within a virtual shopping center of spectacle as commodity subject to the manipulation of the owner. Has that not been the partial achievement of the 24 hour news cycle tracking politics as a game or race or media outlets like Twitter, selling us / determining our prefered reality?
It is like pulling teeth to get people to vote in local elections. Maybe 20% will participate in municiple elections and even less for school boards, parks, libraries and the like. And yet, these are the institutions that have the most direct impact on personal lives. These do not get cable coverage and yet the right has concentrated their efforts on capturing these offices over the past forty years while attacking the unions, mainstream denominations and now the deomcratic institutions of our Constitution. The Dems have done well in the cities but ignored rural America and made some inroads into the suburbs. The R's are working the tribal angle and have media sponsorhip of those ideas.
The I am running a grassroots electoral campaign, I know that the R's will be at the ballot box no matter what. It is their tribal culture. I pray for a warm, sunny day. Here where it's cold, the local and primary elections are held when it's cold. Try to get volunteers to go door to door in January and February after the nominating petiions were due December 15. Not so easy if you don't know your neighbors. Even harder if you've been in front of a screen for most of you shrinking leasure time rather than engaging in human interaction.
All change comes from the bottom up, with you. I tell my students to go home, turn off the TV and tell the people that they live with that they love them. Learn to live independent of the media and internet for a certain period every day when you interact with those that you love. Make the journey within as well as without. Get to know your neighbors. Interact with them. Saul Alinsky started most community organizing with a stop sign at a busy corner using actors in existing local institutions and went from there.
With your friends and neighbors, pick out your stop sign and get started in this reality. You'll meet the active R's in your town when you do because that is already their reality. If your persistant, you may get someplace in electing like minded people to office. Then you can work on the procedural rules of access to the power to determine substantive rules which is how the pie is divided. Then, you are interacting in this reality and the spectacle can be seen for what it is.
You speak the same message as Timothy Snyder and I agree local is where you want to be. We are lucky where I live, we still have a local newspaper but not sure how long it will survive as it isn’t perfect and surprisingly, lots of people, liberal Dems and Repubs dis it (for different reasons).
Sorry for the typos. I thought I had them taken care of.
you can copy, delete, edit, and re-submit the edited copy
I think Michael Moore's film Capitalism a Love Story, contained the interview of
Stephen Moore, wealthy Repub with years in the Heritage Foundation, Cato Institute, Club for Growth and Wall Street Journal editorial board. In that interview Stephen M. said,
“Capitalism is a lot more important than democracy....I’m not even a big believer in democracy."
While 'capitalism' is never mentioned in the Constitution which talks a lot about democracy, people in the U.S. now grow up in the reverse frame. The U.S. also sports an extreme version of capitalism, much more regressive, primitive and sensational than in most countries.
When I need a refresher on what democracy is based on, I reread K.E. Boulding, late president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He devoted his 1980 A.A.A.S. presidential address to the historical and ethical bases shared by the subcultures of both science and democracy. They both had to crawl out from under the very dangerous heels of king and church -- traditional definers of outer reality.
Underlying values of democracy (and science):
1 -- veracity. Trying to tell the truth as best we can.
2 -- strong individualism. Versus stereotyping.
3 -- commitment to testing (of assumptions). To balance all the individualism.
4 -- curiosity. Not really a popular value. "Curiosity killed the cat."
5 -- rejection of the use of threat to change minds.
Pretty handy reminders.
(Boulding's full presidential address is reprinted in Science, Feb. 1980).
Just as generals always seem to fight the last war, political consultants, political pundits and politicians seem to run the last election. Time for a new approach.
I hope that your optimism is justified. I live in NJ and was horrified by Governor Murphy's narrow escape. All of the polls had him winning by at least eight points. National Republicans pretty much ignored the state. The fact that it was so close should alarm Democrats everywhere. And, of course, true to their new playbook, the Republicans are screaming "voter fraud" and are promising litigation. Because, you know, the other side can ONLY win if it cheats...........