UPDATE: Email exposes GOP dirty tricks operation

Whoops!

On Friday, Popular Information reported that Real Change PAC, a purportedly “progressive” super PAC spending millions attacking Democrats from the left, was linked to House Republicans. The linkage to the House Republican super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), was established indirectly — through Real Change PAC’s connections to another sham PAC, California Blue.

Two “progressive” super PACs linked to House GOP

Now, in a digital blunder, Real Change PAC directly revealed its real goals and political affiliation. In a post on X, journalist Andrew Solender noted that when someone subscribes to Real Change PAC’s email list, the confirmation email comes from a cavalryllc.com email address. Cavalry LLC is one of DC’s premier Republican communications shops, founded by Josh Holmes, Senator Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) former Chief of Staff.

In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for example, Real Change PAC is running a TV ad attacking Democratic candidate Joe Baldacci. “The truth? Joe Baldacci is the only Democrat running for Congress who stands with Trump and opposes implementation of Medicare for all Mainers now,” the ad asserts.

In New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, Real Change PAC is attacking Democratic candidate Rebecca Bennett with mailers accusing her of “STANDING WITH ICE” and “CASHING IN ON TRUMP’S TERROR.”

Cavalry does not work with Democrats and supports President Trump’s agenda. The firm does work extensively, however, with the CLF.

According to FEC filings analyzed by Popular Information, the CLF spent over $10 million in the 2024 cycle buying digital ads through Cavalry. The CLF spent over $5 million with Cavalry in the two previous cycles. (CLF, which spends most of its resources on general election campaigns, has not spent much yet in the 2026 cycle.)

Ironically, Real Change PAC’s anti-Baldacci ad, funded by dark money funneled through sham PACs, also attacks Baldacci for being “the handpicked yes man of dark money DC.”

Cavalry did not respond to a request for comment.

California Blue’s strategy, revealed

Real Change PAC’s agenda is easy to discern. It is attacking Democrats who are perceived to be strong candidates in the general election to help the eventual Republican nominee.

California Blue PAC, a related group active only in California’s 40th Congressional District, has a more complex strategy. The 40th district is strongly tilted toward Republicans. But, due to redistricting, there are two Republican members, Young Kim and Ken Calvert, facing off against each other in the 40th.

Further, California has a “jungle primary,” which means candidates from all parties compete and the top two advance to the general, regardless of party affiliation. In addition to each other, Kim and Calvert are also facing a challenge from a Democratic candidate, Esther Kim Varet. If Kim Varet finishes ahead of Kim or Calvert in the primary tonight, one of the incumbents will be eliminated before November’s general election.

California Blue, which is linked to Republicans, is running ads supporting Kim Varet. What is going on? Is California Blue just trying to avoid an expensive general election? Or are they trying to put their thumb on the scale for one of the Republican candidates?

Cavalry’s involvement reveals the answer.

Both California Blue and Real Change PAC are funneling all their spending through a newly created shell company called Four Ponies Consulting LLC. (No other federal committee has spent a dollar with Four Ponies.) So we know that Cavalry, through Real Change PAC, is connected to California Blue.

It is likely that Four Ponies LLC is paying Cavalry to do work for Real Change PAC and exists to obscure the relationship.

FEC records reveal that Cavalry has also been paid over $200,000 in the last month to run digital ads for California Conservatives PAC. These ads, published on an unlisted YouTube account, attack Kim for being a “backstabbing Republican” who “sponsored a bill to censor and condemn President Trump.”

So Cavalry is connected both to efforts to bolster the Democratic candidate, Kim Varet, and to attack one of the Republicans, Kim. Both of these efforts benefit Calvert.

So who is backing California Conservatives PAC, which was just created on April 15? California Conservatives PAC has received 100% of its funds from Conservative Americans PAC. In turn, Conservative Americans PAC receives 100% of its funds from the American Prosperity Alliance.

The American Prosperity Alliance is a 501(c)(4) dark money organization, run by three lobbyists, that appears to exist primarily to obscure the source of political spending. But we do know one thing: it is tightly connected to the CLF.

In a 2024 filing, the American Action Network, the 501(c)(4) associated with the CLF, granted $5.5 million to the American Prosperity Alliance.

This makes some sense. The CLF is tightly connected to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Republican leadership. It is not surprising that House Republican leaders would favor Calvert, who was first elected in 1992 and chairs the powerful Defense Appropriations subcommittee, over Kim, who was first elected in 2020.